In a relatively meaningless game for both teams, we could have taken a little risk with our predictions for anytime scorers ahead of the Monday Night Football matchup between the Detroit Lions and San Francisco 49ers. Instead, however, I'll trust a couple of starting players to find the end zone and offer a strategy on how I'll deal with the players with higher touchdown odds.
The Lions will travel to San Francisco in Week 17 to face the 49ers before their biggest game of the regular season, as they will meet the Minnesota Vikings next week to determine who will wear the NFC North crown.
Because of this, many refrain from betting on the touchdowns and overs associated with the Lions starters. However, I believe their alpha wideout will score before he potentially leaves the game as part of our NFL Week 17 predictions.
On the other hand, a certain 49ers receiver looked rejuvenated last week - too little, too late - and I'll back him to find the end zone on Monday night when the game kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN) from Levi's Stadium.
Monday Night Football Predictions: Lions vs. 49ers
Prediction on the Lions' top touchdown scorer: Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +100 on FanDuel | Estimated odds: 50%.
Sure, it's risky because we may only have two or three quarters to make this bet. However, I still like St. Brown's chances of scoring on Monday night, and these +100 odds represent decent value.
St. Brown's TD prediction is one of the best for receivers this week at 0.58, though this prediction also assumes he'll get his usual workload.
The problem with that is we don't know what head coach Dan Campbell, a contender for NFL Coach of the Year, will do in this game with backup quarterbacks Allen Robinson, Tom Kennedy or No. 2 running back Craig Reynolds.
The Lions have had a slew of injuries this year, so you can expect him to give the starting lineup players a rest in this somewhat meaningless game. However, this is a team that never says die.
So I'd rather back St. Brown before kickoff and then look for live betting opportunities depending on how the game plays out. Sure, you can get +2600 on Robinson scoring right now, but he also might not score a single point.
I always prefer to have more information at my disposal rather than rushing to the best number too early based on mere guesswork.
Prediction on the 49ers' top touchdown scorer: Deebo Samuel, WR ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +175 on DraftKings | Estimated probability: 36.36%
It's been 16 weeks, but the 49ers dual-threat receiver scored his first 20 points of the season in a PPR fantasy half against the Miami Dolphins, turning seven picks into 96 yards and adding another 25 on the ground. But most importantly, he got into the end zone for the first time since Week 6.
It was only his third TD of the season, but it gives us hope that Samuel can finish the season strong. The projected TD on receptions is 0.34, but since running back Isaac Guerendo is injured, Samuel's projected TD on the run is 0.14 after five picks last week.
So with a projection of 0.48, we get a very solid odds associated with a 36 percent implied probability that he will score.
Expert predictions for Monday Night Football
Lions vs. 49ers prediction
Lions vs. 49ers betting odds on MNF
Lions vs. 49ers parlay picks
