In Friday's Liberty Bowl matchup, Texas Tech and Arkansas will look very different than they did during the regular season.
Our prediction for Texas Tech vs Arkansas in the Liberty Bowl suggests Arkansas will benefit from QB Taylen Green remaining on the team. Texas Tech (-1) and Arkansas will meet in the Liberty Bowl at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium in Memphis, Tennessee on Friday at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN).
The predictions below are part of our college bowl predictions.
Our bowl game waiver wire tracker will bring you the latest news on the waiver wire and its impact on bowl game odds.
Texas Tech vs Arkansas: predictions and best predictions: Liberty Bowl
Soccer predictions are based on odds from our top soccer betting sites. Odds are subject to change.
Against the Spread: Arkansas +1.5 (-112 on FanDuel) against Texas Tech ⭐⭐⭐⭐.
My top pick: Over 51.5 (-114 on FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Texas Tech vs Arkansas in ATS prediction for the Texas Institute of Technology vs Arkansas matchup
Arkansas will cover the spread: +1.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best Odds: -112 via FanDuel | Estimated Odds: 52.38%
Even though many key players on the Razorbacks team have transferred or opted out of the Liberty Bowl, Green's dynamic quarterback should get a chance to shine.
Frankly, the Red Raiders defense wasn't good enough to contain Green even before the waiver wire began. Texas Tech ranks 111th in scoring defense, allowing 33.0 points per game.
Will Texas Tech be able to exploit Arkansas' weaknesses?
Arkansas' weakness on defense is the secondary, but with Texas Tech QB Beren Morton out due to injury, we expect a slight efficiency deficit for a Red Raiders offense that ranks 10th in the nation in yards per game.
After starting Arkansas as a favorite, the spread is jumping around in anticipation of this game. We'll take advantage of the line movement by picking the Razorbacks on FanDuel, where they are +1.5 odds. A winning bet of $10 will yield a profit of $8.93.
Texas Tech vs Arkansas is the best choice
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Over 51.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -114 on FanDuel | Estimated odds: 53.27%
After opening at 59.5 odds, this total has dropped to 51.5 and 52 at our top bookmakers, so now is the time to bet the Over.
The Red Raiders are averaging 37.4 points per game and should score more than they should against Green and the Razorbacks.
A fast pace should mean a lot of points
Texas Tech's adjusted defensive efficiency is outside the top 70, but the metrics don't consider it bad enough to create such a brutal defense - at least not by itself. The Red Raiders' offense is partly to blame thanks to its lightning-fast pace of play.
Tech plays every 22.7 seconds - the seventh-fastest tempo in college soccer. In the last three games, that rate has been lowered to 20.1 seconds per game (No. 2 in FBS).
With the offense and player portal cooling off bettors to this total, we're ready to get in on the action as two offenses ranked in the top-50 in adjusted efficiency should push each other in a game that continues to draw attention to the shootout.
Liberty Bowl game information
When: Friday, Dec. 27
Kickoff: Noon ET
Where: Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tenn.).
How to watch: ESPN
Weather: 58 degrees, 49% chance of precipitation, 8 mph SSW winds
Favorite: Texas Tech -1 (-110 via BetMGM)
