The first ticket to the 2025 NFL National Championship will be drawn on Thursday night when the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Penn State Nittany Lions meet in the Orange Bowl.
Our prediction for the Notre Dame vs Penn State matchup includes a spread prediction and the best bet is the total. Kickoff at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Our best college soccer betting sites have the Fighting Irish as 2.5-point favorites.
Despite being ranked lower, Marcus Freeman's team is the favorite in our Notre Dame vs Penn State prediction. Will they make it to Atlanta or will the Nittany Lions have a chance to win their first title in nearly four decades?
Notre Dame vs Penn State game prediction and top pick: CFP Orange Bowl
Soccer predictions are based on odds from our top soccer betting sites. Odds are subject to change.
Against the Spread: Penn State +2.5 (-110 via BetMGM) vs Notre Dame ⭐⭐⭐⭐
My top pick: Notre Dame vs. Penn State under 45.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Notre Dame vs Penn State ATS prediction for this game
Penn State will play the spread: +2.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best Odds: -110 via BetMGM | Estimated Odds: 52.38%
James Franklin can win big games
Where are those who say James Franklin can't win big games now? Have they gone back into their holes? Franklin has his Nittany Lions knocking on the door of a national championship after two flashy wins in the early round of the inaugural 12-game College Football Playoff. Penn State defeated SMU and Boise State by a combined score of 69-24.
It goes without saying that the Nittany Lions were in control from the start of the first round.
This proves that the Nittany Lions' leader can win big games, he just hasn't been able to beat Michigan and Ohio State, which is understandable. Franklin's 101-41 record (711 winning percentage) is impressive as it is, but during his tenure in Happy Valley, he has posted a 97-24 (802) against teams not named the Wolverines or Buckeyes.
Offensive versatility
Another reason I believe Penn State will cover this matchup is because of the way Drew Allar is playing. In his two games in the playoffs, he has limited interceptions and distributes the ball effectively.
That's not to say Riley Leonard hasn't been up to the task, but Leonard's play is more dependent on his ability to double-team the offense. The Nittany Lions will surely try to limit Notre Dame's offense, forcing Leonard to use the air to get the ball downfield. Abdul Carter and Co. create havoc for even the best offensive lines, whether they are Joe Moore Award semifinalists or not.
In an ugly, low-scoring game - and I believe it will be - I'm picking a team that has Kaitron Allen, Nick Singleton, Tyler Warren and others. College Football Insiders gives Penn State a slight edge in this matchup. So I'll take the Nittany Lions points at our top bookmakers any day of the week and twice on Sunday.
Notre Dame vs. Penn State is the best pick
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Less than 45.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best Odds: -110 via BetMGM | Estimated Odds: 52.38%
While I'd love to play Penn State as an underdog, my favorite pick for this matchup is the under bet, and it follows from our College Football Playoff semifinal predictions. The Fighting Irish and Nittany Lions boast two of the best defenses in the country, as evidenced by the fact that they have scored just 51 points in 16 quarters in the College Football Playoff.
Notre Dame and Penn State are scoring 13.6 and 15.8 points per game, matching the top five in the country. They are scoring 13.5 and 12 points per game, respectively, this postseason against the best opponents they have faced throughout the campaign.
Tom Allen and Al Golden have their charges playing their best soccer at the right time. They are the main reason why I believe this game will go down to the wire, despite the total being down three points on the week. The Fighting Irish and Nittany Lions have gone under 16-13 this season, so we'll bet on that trend continuing in a battle of two high-powered offenses.
BetMGM offers the best price on the market at odds under 45.5 at standard juice.
Notre Dame vs. Penn State matchup odds
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Live football odds for the Notre Dame vs. Penn State matchup
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Notre Dame vs Penn State kickoff odds:
Notre Dame: -1.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
Penn State: +1.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
Orange Bowl game information
When: Thursday, Jan. 9
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
Where: Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Fla.)
How to watch: ESPN
Weather: 52 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 7 mph winds N
Favorite: Notre Dame -2.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
