Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts will become the fourth pair of starting quarterbacks to meet multiple times in the Super Bowl when the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles meet in Super Bowl 2025 on Sunday, Feb. 9, at 6:30 p.m. ET (FOX) at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.
This gives us a lot of data to work with when making our predictions on Super Bowl players that are part of our Super Bowl predictions.
The odds are -250 on a quarterback winning the Super Bowl MVP from DraftKings. But will Mahomes or Hurts do enough statistically to take the title if their team wins?
Betting on Super Bowl Players: Best bets on the gear
- Patrick Mahomes Under 36.5 passing attempts ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Patrick Mahomes Under 24.5 completions ⭐⭐⭐
- Jalen Hurts Over 1.5 passing touchdowns ⭐⭐
The Eagles defense is no joke this season. In the regular season and playoffs, the defense allowed 6.1 yards per attempt. That's the lowest among all NFL teams, and it's the lowest in a season since 2001.
Philadelphia, which is the underdog in the Super Bowl odds, ranks first in total defense and second in points per game. Its balanced attack should keep Mahomes and the Chiefs offense off the field more often than usual.
Mahomes, a contender for Super Bowl MVP, has made 20 starts in the playoffs, and in 10 of them he has managed more than 25 assists. However, five of his previous seven playoff starts have fallen below that total, and in the first two playoff games of this year's playoffs, Mahomes is averaging just 17 assists per game.
This season, the Eagles rank first in tackles (81), third in interceptions (17) and third in completion percentage (62%).
Meanwhile, the four players with the most pass-rush wins this season are all Eagles players, Milton Williams (10), Jalen Carter (9), Nolan Smith Jr. (8) and Josh Sweat (7). Philadelphia's relentless pressure should make Mahomes feel uncomfortable in the pocket.
Two years ago in the Super Bowl against the Chiefs, Jalen Hurts gained 304 yards and scored one touchdown. He scored most of his points on the ground with three touchdowns.
This is a great chance for Hurts to score some touchdowns, especially considering his success against the blitz this season.
Including the playoffs, Hurts ranks second with 91 QBR when facing the blitz. His 11:1 ratio of touchdowns to interceptions in that instance also ranks fourth among players with 100 attempts against the blitz, and his 13% targeting percentage is third best.
The Chiefs use the blitz in 18% of their attempts (second best) and have the most pressure (68) using the blitz.
In eight career playoff games, Hurts has eight passing touchdowns and nine running touchdowns. I expect him to trade one of his usual speedy passes for a pass in this game.
All of our betting sites are offering odds of +160 or higher on Hurts throwing multiple touchdowns. At +185 odds, a $10 bet would yield $18.50 in profit.
Information about the Chiefs vs. Eagles matchup
When: Sunday, Feb. 9
Kickoff: 6:30 p.m. ET
Where: Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
How to watch: FOX
Weather: Indoors
Favorite: Chiefs -1.5 (-115 via BetMGM)
