Baseball season is fast approaching, and Opening Day will be here before we know it.
With most of the offseason complete, we have a better idea of what each team will look like and can offer our best MLB win totals predictions.
In this market, I only bet on overs because it's not fun to actively root against a team for 162 games. It at least gives you something to look forward to every day, and betting on overs is still very favorable here.
We've gone through all the predictions and found six strong predictions based on the best odds, three from each league, to give you the perfect balance we all crave.
American League 2025 win totals.
(AL win totals odds according to FanDuel as of Feb. 11)
AL East win totals
| Team (record last year) | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yankees (94-68) | 93.5 (-104)/(-118) |
| Orioles (91-71) | 88.5 (-110)/(-110) |
| Red Sox (81-81) | 85.5 (-110)/(-110) |
| Rays (80-82) | 80.5 (-105)/(-115) |
| Blue Jays (74-88) | 78.5 (-122)/(+100) |
Victory totals in AL Central
| Team (record last year) | Odds |
|---|---|
| Guardians (92-69) | 83.5 (-122)/(+100) |
| Royals (86-76) | 82.5 (-104)/(-118) |
| Tigers (86-76) | 83.5 (-110)/(-110) |
| Twins (82-80) | 83.5 (-118)/(-104) |
| White Sox (41-121) | 52.5 (-124)/(+102) |
AL West win totals
| Team (record last year) | Odds |
|---|---|
| Astros (88-73) | 86.5 (+102)/(-124) |
| Mariners (85-77) | 84.5 (-122)/(+100) |
| Rangers (78-84) | 85.5 (-105)/(-115) |
| Athletics (69-93) | 70.5 (-102)/(-120) |
| Angels (63-99) | 72.5 (+102)/(-124) |
American League win total predictions
Toronto Blue Jays win prediction: Over 78.5 wins
Best Odds: -110 | Estimated Odds: 52.38%
I used a combination of regular season win projections from FanGraphs and PECOTA to make my projections. Based on those numbers, I think this is probably my favorite pick out of the entire group.
We severely underestimate the Blue Jays, setting the win total at just 78.5.
They won 74 games in 2024 despite Bo Bichette being one of the most useless players in baseball, something that certainly won't happen this season (even if he is a little better, that would be a huge plus). In addition, the Jays fielded a lineup that was essentially minor league plus Vladimir Guerrero Jr. for most of the latter stages of the season.
Now Anthony Santander (3.3 fWAR in 2024) and Andres Gimenez (2.8 fWAR) have been added to the team. They are expected to provide the offense with a significant boost in power and speed.
Based on that, FanGraphs projects the Blue Jays to finish the season with 82 wins, while PECOTA ranks them third in the AL East with 85.7. If the Jays manage to finish at least .500, which would be below both projections, we'll still take an over on this pick.
I'm willing to bet that Toronto manages to rebound.
Chicago White Sox win predictions: Over 51.5 wins
Best odds: -130 | Estimated probability: 56.52%
The Chicago White Sox can't be as bad as they were last year, right? That's exactly what this metric tells us.
Sure, 52 wins is 11 more than 2024, but it's still nine fewer than the second-place Colorado Rockies in the majors.
Don't get me wrong. The White Sox are still expected to be the worst team in baseball, but that's just such a low total. We can see this based on their projections of 63 (FanGraphs) and 61.5 (PECOTA) wins.
All the White Sox have to do to exceed that total and earn an over is lose less than 110 games. That shouldn't be difficult, as only 22 teams have lost that many games since 1900.
Deciding which is the best bet depends on how confident you are in the White Sox. This is the lowest total of all, but Over is also overvalued to -130.
Caesars offers a total over 53 at -110, and BetMGM offers a total over 52.5 at -125. I wouldn't consider the latter option, as I would just pay an extra five cents to get an extra win for my prediction. However, the Caesars number is tempting, but I would prefer a safer total given how bad this team is.
Texas Rangers win predictions: Over 85.5 wins
Best odds: +100 | Estimated probability: 50%
Both prediction models expect the Texas Rangers to rebound significantly from a disappointing 78-84 campaign that followed the team winning the World Series in 2023. Moreover, they are expected to win the AL West this year.
The Rangers didn't make many changes in the offseason, although the additions of Jake Burger and Joc Pederson will add a lot of momentum to the lineup. It's more about the Rangers being much healthier in 2025.
Sure, some of these players are injury prone, but let's take a look at how much time some of Texas' most important players missed last year:
- Jacob deGrom and Tyler Mahle made only three starts each
- Corey Seager missed 39 games and Wyatt Langford sat out 28
- Josh Jung and Evan Carter managed to play only 46 and 45 games, respectively
Meanwhile, Adolis Garcia posted an absurd minus-0.2 fWAR after posting a 4.6 fWAR campaign the year before. I expect him to play much better in 2025.
All of this has the potential to produce many more wins than the Rangers did last year, unless injuries ruin them again.
National League win totals 2025
(NL win totals odds according to FanDuel as of Feb. 11)
NL East win totals
| Team (record last year) | Odds |
|---|---|
| Phillies (95-67) | 91.5 (-108)/(-114) |
| Braves (89-73) | 93.5 (-115)/(-105) |
| Mets (89-73) | 92.5 (-106)/(-114) |
| Nationals (71-91) | 70.5 (-120)/(-102) |
| Marlins (62-100) | 63.5 (+100)/(-122) |
Victory totals in the NL Central Region
| Team (record last year) | Odds |
|---|---|
| Brewers (93-69) | 82.5 (-112)/(-110) |
| Cardinals (83-79) | 75.5 (-128)/(+104) |
| Cubs (83-79) | 87.5 (-104)/(-118) |
| Reds (77-85) | 78.5 (-115)/(-105) |
| Pirates (76-86) | 76.5 (+100)/(-124) |
Win totals in the NL West
| Team (record last year) | Odds |
|---|---|
| Dodgers (98-64) | 104.5 (-120)/(-102) |
| Padres (93-69) | 89.5 (-104)/(-118) |
| Diamondbacks (89-73) | 85.5 (-110)/ (-110) |
| Giants (80-82) | 79.5 (-105)/(-118) |
| Rockies (61-101) | 59.5 (-102)/(-120) |
National League win total predictions
Miami Marlins win predictions: Over 63.5 wins
Best Odds: +100 | Estimated Odds: 50%
This is one of the toughest picks we offer, as the Miami Marlins projections in the two sources differ.
FanGraphs projects them to have a 71-91 season, which is nine wins better than their 2024 season. PECOTA, however, gives an almost identical projection of 62.3 wins. So I'll add a bit of my own analysis to that prediction.
First of all, 2022 NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara, who missed the entire 2024 campaign, will return to the team.
Other than that, I really liked what I saw from Xavier Edwards last year. He stole 31 bases and racked up a 2.2 fWAR in just 70 games, and Edwards will be on the Marlins' leadoff team this year. Otto Lopez was also a very effective player last season, making a strong middle infield pairing with Edwards.
Also, I know we are in the third or fourth year of the “Jesus Sanchez breakout”, but I really think he will finally break through. Last year, his goalscoring numbers were elite, and his numbers from July through October were much better than what he showed in the first half of the campaign.
However, that brings us to the risky part of this pick.
If Sanchez has a breakout, or if any of the players play particularly well, the Marlins could trade them before the deadline and spend the second half of the season with the stinkiest lineup known to mankind. Let's just hope they win enough games before they do that, because that's still a very low bar to overcome.
St. Louis Cardinals win predictions: Over 75.5 wins
Best Odds: -110 | Estimated Odds: 52.38%
This pick, along with the Blue Jays, is my favorite.
Not that I think the Cardinals are particularly good, but they continue to play in a division that doesn't have a team with any glaring stars. The schedule is more balanced than it used to be, but that still plays a role, and the team really isn't that bad.
Even if the Cards trade Nolan Arenado, as is rumored to happen, they still have a ton of talent on their roster.
Macyn Wynn was great during his rookie campaign, and Brendan Donovan is a very productive and versatile player who has racked up 3.2 fWAR in 2024. Additionally, Ivan Herrera looks like a potential star catcher (and benefits from being teammates with Wilson Contreras), and Sonny Gray has been one of the most consistent starters in MLB over the past six years.
As with the Blue Jays, that total seems oddly low for an organization that has only once failed to post more than 75.5 wins since the turn of the millennium.
Arizona Diamondbacks win predictions: Over 85.5 wins
Best Odds: -110 | Estimated Probability: 52.38%
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Since everyone is so focused on the Los Angeles Dodgers - and for good reason, as we noted in our piece - we can see that the Over can be bet on another NL West team.
And it's not even just the Dodgers, as the San Diego Padres are trading at a total nearly five games higher than that total on the Arizona Diamondbacks.
The Diamondbacks lost first baseman Christian Walker last year with 89 wins, but replaced him with Josh Naylor, who isn't as good but is still a quality player.
They also added Corbin Burns to an already strong rotation, and the baseball world is expecting a strong rebound from Corbin Carroll, who last year had a first half of the season that will have to be forgotten. In the second half, he looked much more like the 2023 NL Rookie of the Year (2023 slash line is .212/.301/.334 with five home runs in the first half versus .258/.351/.568 with 17 longballs in the second).
Arizona's win projections are around that number, but this team has exceeded expectations two years in a row after being the worst club in baseball back in 2021. The D-Bucs will continue to shock everyone and go over 90 wins this season.
Frequently Asked Questions About MLB Win Totals
Which team is the favorite to win the most games?
The Los Angeles Dodgers are the favorite to win the most games, as they are the only team with a projected win total over 100 games.
Which team is projected to win the least number of games?
The Chicago White Sox are projected to win the fewest games in the majors for the second year in a row.
When does the MLB season start?
The first games of the MLB regular season will be played as part of the special Tokyo Series on March 18 and 19, with Opening Day on March 27.
When does the MLB season end?
The 2025 MLB regular season will end on September 28.
Who won the most games in 2024?
The Los Angeles Dodgers have won the most games in 2024 with 98.
How is a win total bet determined in MLB?
The win total bet in MLB is determined based on the number of wins a team has at the end of the regular season. The postseason is not taken into account.
