Despite only one seeding event occurring on Wild Card weekend, the underdogs on the moneyline won three of six matchups.
Ahead of the second round of the playoffs, we analyze the four matchups involving the winners of the seven divisions and rank the four underdogs based on NFL divisional round odds.
In each of the last two years, both first-place teams have advanced to the conference championship. And since the playoffs expanded to 14 teams in 2020-21, only two teams seeded fifth or lower have won divisional round games.
How many upsets will we see as part of our NFL Divisional Round predictions?
NFL Underdog Rankings: Divisional Round
NFL odds are as of Tuesday and are subject to change. Follow NFL matchups for the latest line changes and matchup information.
Bills (+100 via BetMGM) vs. Ravens ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Rams (+225 via BetMGM) vs. Eagles ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Texans (+375 via BetMGM) at Chiefs ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Chiefs (+420 via FanDuel) at Lions ⭐
Predictions to win in the divisional round
NFL predictions made on Tuesday; odds are subject to change. Our new NFL player betting tool will help you find the best odds in any market among legal sports bettors in your area!
Bills ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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Buffalo started the game against Baltimore as a home favorite, but that line has since gone downhill as the betting public was likely set for a 35-10 Ravens victory over the Bills in Week 4.
It's tough to go against a Buffalo team that is 9-0 at home this season, winning by an average of 17.4 points.
During a 31-7 win over Denver, the Bills became the fourth team to rack up 250 passing yards and 200 rushing yards in a single game in the last 25 postseasons. It was just the second such game in franchise history.
The Bills handed the Broncos their second loss by more than seven points this season and dominated a solid Denver defense, possessing the ball for more than 41 minutes.
It was also Sean Payton's 18th career playoff game and the first time his team scored less than 14 points.
Of all the underdogs playing this weekend, it's hard not to have faith in a Bills team that has yet to win at Highmark Stadium.
BetMGM is the only one of our top sports betting sites to bet on the Bills to win at even-odd odds, as other competing bookmakers are giving them just -105 to win (an implied probability of 51.22%).
As you can see, three of the four best underdog prices are at BetMGM, so be sure to take advantage of our BetMGM bonus code: SBRBONUS1550!
Pick: Bills to win
Best Odds: +100 via BetMGM | Estimated Probability: 50.00%
Rams ⭐⭐⭐
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The Eagles are 13-1 in their last 14 games and haven't lost at home since Week 2 against Atlanta. However, despite having a short week, Los Angeles is still the second most likely underdog to win despite Jalen Hurts leading the home playoffs 3-0.
Los Angeles made Sam Darnold see ghosts again, forcing nine punts and forcing two turnovers, one of which led to a defensive victory.
Saquon Barkley ran for a record 255 yards in a 37-20 win over Los Angeles in Week 12.
But the Rams defense has improved dramatically since then, and should be able to field more defenders after Philadelphia's offense looked mediocre last week (Hurts didn't throw a single pass from the end of the first quarter until 4:41 of the third).
Pick: Rams will win
Best odds: +225 via BetMGM | Estimated probability: 30.77%
Texans ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
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The Texans won last week by the slimmest of margins, forcing Justin Herbert into four interceptions on 32 pass attempts. In the regular season, he threw just three interceptions on 504 attempts.
To give you an idea of how potent Houston was against the Chargers, Texans quarterback Daniel Hunter led the league with a 26% pass-rush completion rate this year. On Saturday, he and teammate Will Anderson surpassed the 25% mark in that category.
The constant pressure from this duo was a big reason why the Texans became the fifth team in the Super Bowl era (and the first since 2002) to have four-plus interceptions, at least four sacks and a pick-6 in a single playoff game.
Kansas City may start slowly, as this is its first game in three weeks after resting key players in Week 18.
The Chiefs beat the Texans 27-19 in Week 16, but Kansas City is far from dominant this year, and Houston has every opportunity to keep the game close, if not pull off the upset.
I wouldn't advise anyone to bet on Houston at +8 odds, but the Texans' moneyline odds are worth a shot, and a $10 bet will yield $37.50 in profit. Those +375 odds are much better than the +320 (23.81% implied probability) offered on DraftKings.
Pick: Texans to win
Best Odds: +375 via BetMGM | Implied Probability: 21.05%
Commanders ⭐
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Jaden Daniels led the Commodores to their sixth win last week after a fourth quarter loss. That's the most wins for a rookie since the start of 1950 (including regular season and playoffs).
As impressive as the win over Tampa Bay, which broke an eight-game rookie quarterback losing streak in the playoffs, don't expect the same this week.
Last week, Washington needed to be very aggressive to pull out a win. Washington converted three of five fourth-down throws and scored 14 points on fourth downs.
I don't give Washington much of a chance to win, so I'd rather gamble on the Chiefs betting on their 9.5-point spread. Caesars is the only one of our top sports betting apps offering +9.5 with a standard -110 juice, while FanDuel offers a low +8.5 odds.
Pick: Commanders +9.5
Best Odds: -110 via Caesars | Estimated Odds: 52.38%
Expert evaluations of the divisional round
- Divisional round odds
- Divisional round picks
- NFL upset picks
- NFL picks against the spread
- Divisional round predictions
