Most Stanley Cup contenders find that meeting lofty expectations is harder than eating a stack of 24 fully-stuffed pancakes and not getting an upset stomach. Consistency has been an elusive beast for most contenders, but that doesn't matter until they gain chemistry and confidence when it matters most.
My early Stanley Cup predictions include an unqualified favorite, a contender whose chances are much better than their play on the ice would suggest, and a playoff-proven contender who has turned things around at perhaps the most opportune time.
Stanley Cup predictions to make after the Super Bowl
Stanley Cup favorite: Edmonton Oilers
⭐⭐⭐⭐
Stanley Cup contender pick: Winnipeg Jets ⭐⭐⭐
Stanley Cup contender of choice: New York Rangers ⭐⭐⭐
Early predictions to win the Stanley Cup
Stanley Cup favorite: Edmonton Oilers
Best odds: +650 on FanDuel | Estimated odds: 13.33%.
For the Oilers, who have been playing at an elite level since waking up from a lingering hangover from the Stanley Cup Final, consistency of play is not an issue.
Through 21 games, the Oilers are 16th in scoring percentage (.525). With a 10-9-2 record, they were trailing behind the Anaheim Ducks and Buffalo Sabres.
Since then, the Oilers have finished second in the NHL. Throughout the season, the Oilers, with .735 points and a 24-8-2 record, have consistently proven why they were the favorites to win the Stanley Cup.
The Oilers are built for the playoffs
The Oilers are far from the strongest team, but they don't need to be with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl on the ice. In addition to the two Hart Trophy contenders, the Oilers have one of the best offensive defensemen in Evan Bouchard and a top-10 defensive unit.
They're also battle-tested in the postseason, and they have the character among management to capitalize on last season's Stanley Cup Final loss and use unrivaled grief as a motivating factor to help pull themselves together when the time comes.
And it will surely come.
Stuart Skinner represented a question mark the size of an oil field last playoff season, and he'll be uncertain again this one.
While Skinner had more shaky moments than a martini in the first round of last year's playoffs, he settled down in the latter stages and even stole a few games en route to Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final.
Finally, I don't see anyone or any team stopping McDavid from putting his name on the Stanley Cup.
Hungry like a hyena that hasn't eaten in days, he spent his first nine seasons without a cup. Unless an opposing goalie sets up a Conn Smythe-style playoff series, this is McDavid's year.
Over the past 14 months, our top sports betting sites have been almost as biased against the Oilers as I have been. FanDuel is currently ahead of the rest, where a $10 bet will yield a $65 profit.
Oilers' key stats for the 2024-25 season
| Stats | Ranking |
|---|---|
| One-goal game win % | 7th (.600) |
| Scoring-first win % | T-6th (.714) |
| Win % after allowing first goal | 5th (.519) |
| Goals per game | T-4 (3.31) |
| Goals for per 60 minutes 5-on-5 | 7th (2.59) |
| Goals against per game | 8th (2.75) |
| Goals against per 60 minutes 5-on-5 | 16th (2.28) |
| Home points % | T-12 (.633) |
| Away points % | 3rd (.680) |
| Win % leading after one period | 8th (.778) |
| Corsi % | 3rd (54.16) |
| PDO | 24th (99.36) |
| Power play | 6th (25) |
| Penalty kill | 23rd (75.6) |
Stanley Cup contender pick: Winnipeg Jets
Best odds: +1500 via Caesars | Estimated odds: 6.25%
It's odd to consider the Jets a Stanley Cup contender not only because of their history of playoff failures, but also because of their record as the second-best team in the NHL.
Typically, the team with the second-best points percentage (.723) through two-thirds of the season is among the leaders in Stanley Cup odds. That's not the case for the Jets, whose +1500 odds at Caesars are tied for ninth among the shortest odds on the Colorado Avalanche.
With 16 teams getting into the dance, it's fair to label the Jets as contenders.
Winnipeg is a head and shoulders above every team except the Washington Capitals, and their regular season performance is simply astounding.
However, this absolute superiority is somewhat concerning, as maintaining such an exceptional level throughout the regular season and playoffs is no easy task. Nevertheless, the Jets have Connor Hellebuyck as the favorite to win the Vezina Trophy.
Will Winnipeg be able to fulfill their playoff hopes?
Like the rest of the team, Hellebuyck has a constant nightmare he can't seem to shake off: playoff hockey. A goalie of his caliber has to prove himself at some point in the postseason, and this year is as good a time as any to do so.
Another major concern is that they'll be playing meaningless hockey at the end of the season. That can't be idyllic when entering the postseason. But I like the way this team is playing under Hellebuyck, and this year, unlike last year, they are backing up their defensive qualities with a balanced but productive offense.
Key stats for the Jets in the 2024-25 season
| Stats | Ranking |
|---|---|
| One-goal game win % | T-2 (.688) |
| Scoring-first win % | 1st (.821) |
| Win % after allowing first goal | 4th (.571) |
| Goals per game | 1st (3.61) |
| Goals for per 60 minutes 5-on-5 | 8th (2.55) |
| Goals against per game | 1st (2.39) |
| Goals against per 60 minutes 5-on-5 | 1st (1.79) |
| Home points % | 2nd (.783) |
| Away points % | 4th (.654) |
| Win % leading after one period | 2nd (.917) |
| Corsi % | 19th (49.29%) |
| PDO | 2nd (102.68) |
| Power play | 1st (33.33%) |
| Penalty kill | 14th (79.7) |
Stanley Cup pick: New York Rangers
Best Odds: +4000 via Caesars | Estimated Odds: 2.44%
The Rangers were one of the favorites to win the Stanley Cup early in the season. And then, like a grizzly bear in a long hibernation, the Rangers heartbeat slowed down like everything else on the ice. I'm sure Blueshirts fans would like to see their heart rate not suffer the opposite fate.
I was already going to make a pick in favor of the Ottawa Senators. However, I dropped the idea at the last minute due to their inexperience in the postseason, an unimportant offense, and questions about whether Linus Ullmark could regain his elite form.
The Rangers have an uphill battle on the horizon. They must beat four teams to earn a wild-card spot in the group. A place in the group is the best-case scenario at the moment.
The Rangers have finally gotten their act together on Broadway. They are fourth in points-percentage since Jan. 9 (.667) with a 9-4-2 record.
If they make their way to a playoff spot, they will be a team to be reckoned with. No one, especially a No. 1 seed, will want to play a team that has reached two of the last three Eastern Conference Finals and has one of the best goaltenders in the playoffs.
Igor Shestyorkin can't help but burn in the spotlight, and the Rangers will play tenacious and meaningful hockey for the better part of four months before the dance begins.
Caesars offers the most competitive price among our top sportsbooks, offering +4000. A winning bet of $10 will yield a $400 profit.
Rangers key stats for the 2024-25 season
| Stats | Ranking |
|---|---|
| One-goal game win % | 10th (.545) |
| Scoring-first win % | 5th (.720) |
| Win % after allowing first goal | 22nd (.300) |
| Goals per game | 14 (2.98) |
| Goals for per 60 minutes 5-on-5 | T-10 (2.52) |
| Goals against per game | T-20 (3.05) |
| Goals against per 60 minutes 5-on-5 | 24th (2.59) |
| Home points % | T-21 (.536) |
| Away points % | 14th (.519) |
| Win % leading after one period | T-11 (.750) |
| Corsi % | 21st (48.84%) |
| PDO | 16th (100.14) |
| Power play | 19th (20.6%) |
| Penalty kill | T-6 (82.2) |
Stanley Cup questions and answers
Who are the favorites to win the Stanley Cup?
The Edmonton Oilers and Carolina Hurricanes are the favorites with odds of +650. These odds mean a 13.33% probability of winning, according to our data.
When will the Stanley Cup Final take place?
The 2025 Stanley Cup Finals will begin on Saturday, June 8 and will conclude on June 24. These are the approximate dates for the 2025 Finals.
Where will the Stanley Cup Finals be held?
The first place team in the Stanley Cup Finals gets home ice advantage, which means they will host four of the seven games if the series reaches a deciding Game 7. The location for the two games will be determined after the finalists are decided.
Who won the Stanley Cup last year?
The Florida Panthers won the Stanley Cup Final last season, defeating the Oilers in seven games. It was the Panthers' first Stanley Cup triumph.
