The Minnesota Vikings vs. Los Angeles Rams matchup on Monday night (8 p.m. ET, ESPN/ABC) concludes the six-game Wild Card Weekend series.
Our NFL Wild Card Weekend prediction for the Vikings vs. Rams matchup looks at the game from a different perspective as it has been moved from Sofi Stadium to State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona due to the ongoing wildfires in Los Angeles.
Will the upcoming playoff game be similar to the Rams' 30-20 home win over the Vikings in Week 8? As for moneyline predictions, we make two of our three NFL playoff bracket predictions ahead of Wild Card weekend and the playoffs.
Vikings vs Rams predictions
NFL match predictions based on odds from the best NFL betting sites. Odds are subject to change.
Against the Spread: Vikings -2.5 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. Rams ⭐⭐⭐⭐
My top pick: Sam Darnold, who has thrown the most passes for over 37.5 yards (-120 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Vikings vs. Rams game prediction: wild-card weekend
Vikings will overcome the spread: -2.5 ⭐⭐
A change of venue will neutralize this matchup
Earlier this week, we named the Rams as one of our top favorites for NFL Week, given that Los Angeles was one of the two home underdogs of Wild Card Weekend.
However, Los Angeles played better on the road (5-3) than at home (5-4), so the line changed by just one point in Minnesota's favor after the change of venue was announced. And while one point isn't enough to lean the other way, we don't know how the wildfires will affect the Rams' psyche as a whole, which gives enough doubt to back Minnesota.
Positive red zone regression for Sam Darnold
Darnold had his worst performance of the season last week. In the loss to Detroit, he posted season lows in completion percentage (43.9%), passing yards (166), and yards per attempt (4.0).
I expect positive regression, especially in regards to his red zone performance.
Over the last two games, Darnold has scored 1 QBR and completed 31% of his passes, with 43% of his red zone attempts being off-target.
However, through the first 15 games, Darnold led the league with a QBR of 75, a completion percentage of 70% and a red zone percentage of 12%.
NFC North Prep Vikings.
The NFC North became the first division in NFL history to produce a team with 14 wins that did not win the division and the second wild card team to do so, the 11-win Packers.
The division has shown its dominance over the rest of the league, going 33-11 SU and bridging the gap in 30 of 44 games against non-division opponents.
History also suggests Minnesota is in line to win. The Vikings had their nine-game winning streak snapped last week. Each of the four previous teams that had a winning streak of seven or more games end just before the playoffs began have won in the first round.
I'm making this wager at BetMGM, as it's one of the best sports betting sites to give standard odds of -110 on favorites (rather than -120 like other places).
Best Odds: -110 at BetMGM | Estimated Probability: 52.38%
Vikings vs. Rams is the best choice
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Sam Darnold, who threw the longest pass for over 37.5 yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐
In line with betting on the Vikings to close out the scoring, I was most interested in betting a total of more than 1.5 Darnold touchdowns. But I abandoned that bet as soon as I saw that the cheapest price to back the Over is -168 on FanDuel.
Instead, I'm betting on over Darnold's highest number of completions given his success on deep throws. This season, Darnold has the most completions on throws of 20 or more yards, the highest completion percentage (56%) and the most touchdowns (nine).
Meanwhile, the Rams have allowed eight touchdowns on deep throws, which ranks 26th in the NFL. This is a four-star game, as Darnold was particularly effective using play-action in these teams' Week 8 matchup.
Darnold completed all eight of his passes using play-action, gaining 104 yards and averaging 13.0 yards per attempt. That could be the key to Darnold exceeding the projected total for the fifth time in the last nine games.
FanDuel is the only one of our top sports networks with O/U odds of 37.5, while all others are slightly higher at 38.5.
Best Odds: -120 via FanDuel | Estimated Odds: 54.55%
Odds for the Vikings vs. Rams game
Check out all the odds and results for this week's NFL matchups.
Follow the latest odds! Odds are updated in real time.
Odds for the Vikings vs Rams matchup:
Vikings: -2 (-110 via BetMGM)
Rams: +2 (-110 via BetMGM)
Vikings vs. Rams matchup information
When: Monday, Jan. 13
Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET
Where: State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
How to watch: ESPN/ABC/ESPN+
Weather: Indoors:
Favorite: Vikings -2.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
