The Boston Red Sox went out on Wednesday night, signing infielder Alex Bregman to a three-year, $120 million contract, cementing their status as a threat to the New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles in the American League East.
However, are the Red Sox the real contenders to win after their blockbuster performance? We examine the latest odds for the Red Sox to win the World Series and determine if the addition of Bregman will change the outlook for Boston, which has gone from a potential postseason club to a major contender to win the Fall Classic.
2025 World Series Odds
Here's the latest news after the Red Sox signed Alex Bregman on Wednesday. Boston's odds dropped from +4000 to +2500 after signing the former Houston Astros star.
Odds on the Red Sox winning the 2025 World Series
| Sportsbook | Odds | Implied probability | Profit ($10) |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +2200 | 4.35% | $220 |
| FanDuel | +2500 | 3.85% | $250 |
| BetMGM | +2500 | 3.85% | $250 |
| Caesars | +1800 | 5.26% | $180 |
| bet365 | +2500 | 3.85% | $250 |
If you are going to bet on the Red Sox winning the World Series, make sure you get the most favorable odds.
For example, a bookmaker is offering odds of +1800 on a Boston win. This means that a $10 winning bet will bring in a profit of $180, while the same bet elsewhere could bring in $250 - so you're sacrificing $70 (or almost 40%) by betting at those odds.
Change in odds on the Red Sox winning the World Series
Since the Bregman signing, the odds for the Red Sox to win the World Series have changed significantly on our top sports betting apps - dropping from +4000 to no more than +2500.
World Series Opening Day Odds
- Dodgers: +400
- Braves: +800
- Yankees: +800
- Orioles: +1100
- Phillies: +1100
- Padres: +1300
- Astros: +1400
- Mets: +1400
- Mariners: +2500
- Rangers: +2500
- Red Sox: +4000
The Red Sox have the 11th best odds of winning the World Series, separated by the Cincinnati Reds, Tampa Bay Rays and Detroit Tigers, with the latter rumored to be one of the finalists in the Bregman sweepstakes.
Alex Bregman had multiple offers. The Red Sox had a big number - $40 million a year, not including deferrals. The Tigers had years and dollars: six and $171.5 million, also with deferrals. The Cubs had no years, dollars or AAV in four $120 million contracts. It's hard to win when you're inferior in all three metrics.
However, Boston currently ranks seventh on the list of lowest odds to win the World Series, behind only Bregman's former team, the Astros.
The Red Sox are not on par with the Atlanta Braves (+1000), New York Mets (+1200) or Philadelphia Phillies (+1200) and are behind two AL East rivals, the New York Yankees (+800) and Baltimore Orioles (+1700). But the move represents a clear change in expectations for a team that won 81 games last year.
Will the Red Sox roster improve in 2025?
Of course, the No. 1 question right now is how much will players like Bregman, Garrett Crochet and Walker Buehler improve the Red Sox, in addition to the hopefully healthier seasons of Lucas Giolito, Trevor Story and Triston Casas?
The Red Sox are projected to finish in the cellar of the AL East, while we have them in second place in the division, so even the best prediction models can't agree on this team's prospects.
Red Sox offseason additions and key players for 2025
Let's analyze the impact of several key Red Sox players ahead of the 2025 season, starting with the $120 million man himself.
Alex Bregman (2B).
Bregman is rumored to play second base for the Red Sox, leaving Rafael Devers at third and Casas as the primary first baseman.
Last year, second base was a revolving door of mediocrity for Boston. Enmanuel Valdes played the most games at second base for the Red Sox, and he was just awful. He had a negative fWAR and racked up a measly 72 wRC+ while playing poor defense.
Bregman would be a huge improvement on defense after years of playing a much more difficult position as the Astros' third baseman. He had another strong season in 2024, compiling a 4.1 fWAR and slashing .260/.315/.453.
Bregman was underrated because expectations that he would be a perennial favorite never materialized, and he is now considered an underdog. However, with the exception of a disappointing 2021 campaign that was marred by a hamstring injury, he has been one of baseball's most consistent infielders.
Even if you exclude his two MVP seasons in 2018 and 2019, he ranks sixth among third basemen in fWAR from 2020-2024, just behind Devers. If you include them, he would be second, ahead of Manny Machado and Nolan Arenado, despite playing in far fewer games.
Besides, if Fenway Park is ever built for a current MLB player, it should be Bregman, whose elite plate discipline and power at the gap should shine in his new home.
Garrett Crochet (SP).
Crochet is considered the second favorite for a reason.
The southpaw was ridiculous last season. Here's how he looked among AL starters who threw at least 140 innings last year:
- 4.7 fWAR (third - despite pitching far fewer innings than competitors)
- 3.58 ERA (15th)
- 2.72 expected ERA (second)
- 2.49 FIP (second)
- 2.38 xFIP (first)
- 12.88 strikeouts per nine innings (first - second most were 10.77)
- 2.03 walks per nine (eighth)
- 29.6% K-BB (first - second was 25.65)
- 2.53 SIERA (first)
- .318 BABIP (fourth-highest - tells us he was relatively unlucky)
All in all, Crochet is a real stud, and if the Red Sox make it to the postseason, he will torment any team that has to stand against him in the batter's box.
Veteran rotation
Who knows how good Giolito will be after undergoing elbow surgery last year - he opted for an internal bandage versus Tommy John surgery. The same can be said for Buehler, who has looked like a shell of his former self over the past two seasons.
However, if either of them can find a semblance of the form that made them Cy Young contenders back in 2021, it would be a major boost to a Red Sox rotation that finished eighth in ERA and racked up 11 fWAR last season.
Right now, Buehler serves as SP5 and Giolito is SP6, showing us that the Red Sox don't even need both players to be great.
Injured infielders
The Red Sox spent most of last season without Story and Casas, and they should help make Boston much more competitive this season if they can stay healthy.
Perhaps the biggest problem with Story is that he may not be very good. However, Boston has plenty of backups in the outfield waiting to step up if he does play poorly or gets injured for a third straight season (we'll talk about those a little later).
Steamer projects Casas to hit 2.3 fWAR. Dominic Smith played the most games at first base for the Red Sox last year, and he managed 0.3 fWAR and a below-average wRC+ hitter.
With Story and Casas healthy, the Red Sox will have speed and power throughout the lineup.
A developed farming system
Now for those prospects we briefly mentioned earlier:
Boston's farm system is indeed rich: outfielder Roman Anthony is listed by MLB Pipeline at No. 2 among prospects, behind only Rocky Sasaki, while infielders Christian Campbell and Marcelo Mayer are No. 7 and No. 12, respectively.
In turn, Campbell and Anthony are the two biggest favorites and they could make an impact at the major league level at any point this season.
If the Red Sox get injured or see either of these young rookies improve the lineup significantly, they will undoubtedly not hesitate to call them up, especially since they opened their window to contend for a championship by signing Bregman for just three years. The time to win is now.
My best bet and prediction on the Red Sox
As you might expect, I rate the Red Sox highly this season, and not just because of the Bregman signing. That's why I'm betting on the Red Sox to win the World Series (+2500).
Red Sox to win the World Series (+2500)
I bet on the Red Sox at +4000 odds back on December 1, and I didn't think I would bet on them at odds less than that. However, they are, and with the additional information here on February 13, I really like them even at those odds.
Do I think Boston is that much worse than the Astros, whose best odds are +2000? I think the Red Sox look better on paper. Then, let's take into account the teams trading at slightly higher odds than Boston: the San Diego Padres (+2800), Texas Rangers (+3000), Chicago Cubs (+3000), and Seattle Mariners (+3000).
With the exception of the Rangers, none of these teams have won anything in recent years, while Alex Cora and the Red Sox won the World Series in 2018. The lineup may be different, but this is a manager and an organization that knows how to win. That will give the Red Sox an advantage when the deadline comes if they are still among the contenders.
When you consider the MLB talent ahead of Opening Day and the young players who could debut this year, it's hard to suggest that the Red Sox aren't true contenders to win the World Series this season.
World Series Questions and Answers
Who are the favorites to win the World Series?
The Los Angeles Dodgers are the favorites to win the World Series with odds of +300 at DraftKings. These odds give them a 25% chance of winning.
Who won the World Series last year?
Last year, the Los Angeles Dodgers beat the New York Yankees in five games to win the World Series.
What are the odds on the Red Sox winning the World Series?
The best odds on the Boston Red Sox winning the World Series are +2500.
When does the MLB season start?
The first MLB regular season games will be played as part of the special Tokyo Series on March 18 and 19, with Opening Day on March 27.
When will the World Series be held?
The 2025 World Series will begin in late October and conclude in early November. The 2024 Fall Classic concluded on October 30 (five games).
