The Toronto Maple Leafs should be ready to face one of the league's highest-scoring teams on Tuesday when the Dallas Stars come to Scotiabank Arena (7 p.m. ET, ESPN+).
The Stars clearly didn't overdo it on Christmas Day, as they lost to the Ottawa Senators on Sunday for the first time in eight games. They've also improved markedly on the road and finally fulfilled their Stanley Cup hopes.
After five straight wins, the Maple Leafs have lost two in a row, and I expect Craig Berube's team to show their best in our Stars vs. Maple Leafs prediction and player selections.
Predictions for Stars - Maple Leafs today
NHL odds from our top NHL betting sites; confidence in the prediction on a scale of 1 to 5 stars.
Prediction: Maple Leafs ML (-105 at Betway) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Jason Robertson suggests: Over 2.5 shots (-106 via Betway) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
William Nylander prop pick: Over 2.5 shots (-130 via Betway) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
My best prediction for the Stars vs. Maple Leafs game: Maple Leafs ML ⭐⭐⭐⭐
I look at the Maple Leafs as a home underdog with interest.
That tells us a lot about the quality and form of the visiting Stars. While we shouldn't forget that Dallas has confidence entering Scotiabank Arena, we shouldn't forget that the Maple Leafs rank eighth in home point percentage (.680).
It's only recently that their points percentage at Scotiabank Arena has dropped to eighth place. A few weeks prior to that, they were consistently in the top five at home.
The Maple Leafs have a disturbing trend, which I'm sure Berube has already been able to convey to his team. They are 5-0-0-0 in their last five games against non-playoff teams and 1-4-0 in their last five games against playoff teams.
Tuesday's game against one of the NHL's elite teams is the perfect opportunity for Berube's team to get things right.
Joseph Wall, who has won his last four home games, will be out for the team. He showed his best hockey in Toronto, and I expect another strong game from the team's current number one. It's been almost three months since the Maple Leafs have lost three in a row, and that's another reason why I'm betting on them to win.
Dallas is still reaching for the Stars on the road
Despite winning five of the last six meetings on enemy courts, the Stars rank 12th in away points percentage (.550). That speaks to how miserable their results had been prior to their most recent scoring streak.
In addition, Dallas has lost three in a row in Toronto and can't show their best game.
Best odds: -105 via Betway | Estimated Odds: 51.22%
Best predictions for the Stars vs. Maple Leafs game
NHL player selections are made Tuesday; odds are subject to change.
Jason Robertson: Over 2.5 shots ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Like most of his teammates, Robertson has gotten much better since the Christmas break. He's started shooting more, especially in the outfield, and has added to his game. That has led to him hitting the over in three of the last four and five of the previous six meetings on enemy courts.
A winning bet of $10 will return a profit of $9.43.
Best odds: -106 via Betway | Odds: 51.46%.
William Nylander prop pick: Over 2.5 shots ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best Odds: -130 via Betway | Estimated Odds: 56.52%
There was a time when you couldn't find a single prediction on Nylander at odds under 3.5. The 2.5 total shows a gradual and consistent decline in his shot production, and it's taking a toll on his scoring ability. Nylander has scored just one goal in his last 10 games, which is a significant drop from what we saw at the start of the campaign.
He has only hit the 'over' once in the last four games. However, prior to his last two setbacks on home ice, Nylander had reflected at least three shots five games in a row.
Nylander almost always gets a chance against the Stars, against whom he has taken at least three shots in eight straight games.
Odds and information on the Stars vs Maple Leafs matchup.
- When: Tuesday, Jan. 14
- Puck drop: 7 p.m. ET
- Where: Scotiabank Arena (Toronto)
- How to watch: ESPN+
- Favorite: Stars (-115 via Betway)
