After a tough win over Wake Forest last weekend, Duke (17-2) will get a much easier opponent in NC State (9-10) when these two ACC teams face off at Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham, N.C., at 8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) tonight.
Our predictions and odds for NC State vs. Duke do not suggest that the March Madness-leading Blue Devils will struggle at home against the Wolf Pack.
Predictions for the NC State vs. Duke today
College basketball predictions based on odds from the best March Madness betting sites.
Against the Spread: Duke -21.5 (-112 via DraftKings) vs. NC State ⭐⭐⭐⭐
My top pick: Cooper Flagg Over 12.5 rebounds and assists (-105 on FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
NC State vs. Duke prediction for the ATS matchup
Duke will overcome the spread: -21.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
After an extravaganza Final Four appearance last season, NC State is experiencing one of its worst years under Kevin Kitts. The Wolf Pack has lost four straight, including six of its last seven, and is 2-10 against non-mid-major league opponents.
The team is just 6-13 against the spread, 1-6 as an underdog and 2-6 against ACC teams this season. Since the end of November, the team has only gone into coverage three times.
So I don't see how a school that is outside the top 100 in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, according to KenPom, will be able to thwart Cooper Flagg and Co.
Flagg is the favorite in the Wooden Award odds, and he is the reason the Blue Devils are a top six team in both offensive and defensive efficiency. And while it's a big spread, John Scheyer's team is 7-4 ATS as a 15-point favorite.
It's not just Flagg that makes Duke so dangerous. The Blue Devils have three of the top three players in the ACC in BPR and five of the top seven, according to EvanMiya. NC State does not have a single player ranked in the top 25.
If Duke closes out, a $10 bet would yield a profit of $8.93.
Best odds: -112 via DraftKings | Estimated odds: 52.83%
Best predictions for NC State - Duke game
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Cooper Flagg over 12.5 rebounds and assists ⭐⭐⭐⭐
After Flagg put the Blue Devils on his back on Saturday by beating Wake, Demon Deacons head coach Steve Forbes said it best when he said the guard is a generational talent. It's not just that Flagg is averaging 26.7 points per game over the last four games. He's doing it by impacting the game in every way he can.
He leads the Blue Devils in rebounds (8.0) and assists per game (4.2) and shows no signs of slowing down. The freshman phenom has racked up 12.5 rebounds and assists in five of his last six games, and he now has 12 games with a 13+ total this season.
That puts him over that mark in 63.1 percent of his meetings, and NC State doesn't look like a team that can stop him: the Wolf Pack ranks 245th in rebounds per game (35.6). That gives Flagg every chance to take the over and turn a $10 bet into a $9.52 profit.
Best odds: -105 on FanDuel | Estimated probability: 51.22 percent
Odds for NC State vs Duke at the start of the match
Spread: NC State +22.5 (-110) | Duke -22.5 (-110)
Over/Under: Over 134.5 (-110) | Under 134.5 (-110)
Moneyline: NC State +2800 | Duke -20000
Match Information for NC State vs. Duke
When: Monday, Jan. 27
Kickoff: 8:30 p.m. ET
Where: Cameron Indoor Stadium (Durham, NC)
How to watch: ESPN
Favorite: Duke -21.5 (-112 via DraftKings)
