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NFL MVP odds ahead of Ravens vs. Bills: What the odds say about the Jackson vs. Allen showdown

Trying to decide who is more deserving of the MVP title - Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen - is like trying to decide who wins - Spider-Man or Superman - in a fight of any flavor.

Ahead of one of the most anticipated divisional round matchups in recent memory, which we covered in our earlier predictions for Ravens vs. Bills, Jackson and Allen is the most talked about topic, and for good reason.

Both megastars have led their teams to Super Bowl contender status, and neither has traveled the road of the regular season without holes of varying depths.

With that in mind, let's take our own 18-week journey analyzing how Jackson and Allen's odds moved, fluctuated and shifted throughout the regular season.

The history of the NFL MVP odds race
Jackson made the All-Pro first team: What is the historical significance of the MVP odds race?
Allen was the clear frontrunner in the MVP race when the market closed after Week 18 in our top betting odds. However, his closing odds of -470 on FanDuel, which meant an 82.46% chance of winning, seemed relatively insignificant after Jackson was named first-team All-Pro by the same voters who determined MVP.

I wrote this in the past tense because the AP-appointed electors had already voted and determined the MVP.

Here's the bad news for those who believed Allen would win his first MVP. The likelihood of a first-team All-Pro quarterback winning an MVP is as likely as the Pittsburgh Steelers failing in the playoffs in the last seven years (that probability is 100 percent, by the way).  

The last 11 MVP winners have all been first-team All-Pro quarterbacks. That's about it. There are a few counterarguments, however.

Closest vote for the All-Pro team since 2003
This was the closest vote for first-team All-Pro since 2003, with Jackson receiving 30 first-team votes and Allen receiving 18. The same 12-vote gap was in 2003, and Peyton Manning won All-Pro honors then. A few weeks later, he was forced to share the MVP title with Steve McNair, who was named co-MVP.

Since the voting was very close, Saquon Barkley, who could break the record for most points scored in a season if he plays in Week 18, could help Allen by pulling some votes away from Jackson.

Also, being named to the All-Pro first team didn't always lead to winning an MVP nomination. In 1987, John Elway was the MVP despite Joe Montana being named first-team All-Pro a few weeks earlier. So it's happened. Take comfort in this nugget from 37 years ago, Allen supporters. 

Movement of the regular season MVP contenders' odds
I'm not going to parse out the statistical comparisons between two of the world's most wacky athletes. I'll leave that to our Jackson Cowart, whose analysis of Allen vs. Jackson, who is the real MVP, offers the perfect solution to this particular itch.  

While there is no shortage of criteria for determining the winner, I focused on Allen and Jackson's MVP moments that could sway the selectors, especially since this award is often seen as narrative-driven.

I'm including Barkley in the race even though everyone knows he won't win. He was a prime candidate until everyone came out of their hypnotic state, realizing that this award is for quarterbacks and only quarterbacks. Joe Burrow's sensational statistical season also secured him a spot in the arena, albeit on the sidelines.

Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes started the season as a +500 favorite, but has gradually slid downward despite leading the reigning Super Bowl champions to the No. 1 spot in the AFC and a first-round win.

Let's take a look at the most influential regular season moments and odds changes.

MVP title odds after week 1 
Odds are based on averages from our top NFL betting sites

MVP odds contender Odds Implied probability 
Josh Allen+52516.67%
Lamar Jackson +16005.88%
Saquon Barkley+125000.79%
Joe Burrow +16005.88%

Allen's moment as first-round MVP
Against the Arizona Cardinals, Allen had 2+ touchdowns and 2+ rushing touchdowns for the fourth time in his career, surpassing Cam Newton and equaling the record set by Steve Young.  

Jackson in Week 1
Could have, would have, should have. Change the saying “lost by a nose” to “lost by a finger” and you get the Baltimore Ravens' Week 1 storyline: Jackson and Co. lost 27-20 to the Kansas City Chiefs in heartbreaking fashion.  

MVP odds after Week 3.

MVP odds contender Odds Implied probability 
Josh Allen+22031.25%
Lamar Jackson +186019.60%
Saquon Barkley+61201.61%
Joe Burrow +22604.24%

Allen's Week 3 MVP moment 
Do you remember Week 3? If you're a Jacksonville Jaguars fan, you hardly want to. Allen destroyed the Jacksonville defense and became the first quarterback to throw four touchdown passes in the first half of a Monday Night Football game since Ben Roethlisberger accomplished the feat in a game against the Ravens in 2007. Before halftime, he tied his career record for most touchdowns.

MVP odds after Week 4.

MVP contender Odds Implied probability 
Josh Allen+31723.98%
Lamar Jackson +90010%
Saquon Barkley+72201.37%
Joe Burrow +22804.20%

Jackson's Week 4 MVP moment. 
Jackson's Ravens team defeated Allen's Bills by a score of 35-10. While Jackson's stats (210 yards passing, two touchdowns, one touchdown, and 54 yards rushing) aren't flashy, his masterful running game ensured a bright victory. I hope this isolated anomaly doesn't repeat itself this weekend in Buffalo, as I bet on the home team in our divisional round predictions against the spread.

It wasn't Josh Allen vs. Lamar Jackson in the Bills game, but something much, much, much, much bigger.

The Baltimore Ravens offense got to work, Lamar Jackson was throwing the ball around, and the running game was going their way.

MVP odds after Week 5.

MVP contender Odds Implied probability 
Josh Allen+75011.76%
Lamar Jackson +59010%
Saquon Barkley+72201.37%
Joe Burrow +18605.10%

Jackson's Week 5 MVP moment 
What do you think of the four touchdowns in a game against MVP contender Joe Burrow and his Cincinnati Bengals team? It was the first of four games in which Jackson threw at least four touchdowns. The Ravens won 41-38 in a shootout, and Jackson's heroics in the fourth quarter played no small part in that.

Jackson had a significant advantage over Allen in the latter stages of games with a 0.25 EPA in the fourth quarter. Put that brilliant stat next to Allen's relatively small -0.02 EPA in the final quarter.

MVP odds after Week 7.

MVP contender Odds Implied probability 
Josh Allen+5756.75%
Lamar Jackson +24129.33%
Saquon Barkley+97501.02%
Joe Burrow +22864.19%

Jackson's Week 7 MVP moment 
For Tampa Bay fans, it would have been better if their beloved Buccaneers had lost before kickoff. Like a hungry raven on a meat carcass, Jackson pounced on the Florida town, throwing for as many as five touchdowns. It wasn't the only time he scored points, and it further propelled him forward in the roller-coaster MVP race.

MVP odds after Week 9

MVP contender Odds Implied probability 
Josh Allen+30025%
Lamar Jackson +29125.58%
Saquon Barkley+77291.28%
Joe Burrow +17005.56%

Jackson's Week 9 MVP moment. 
How about a perfect passer rating? In a 41-10 win over the Denver Broncos, Jackson completed 16-for-19 for 280 yards at 14.7 yards per attempt.

He threw three touchdowns and never made a mistake, totaling a perfect 158.3 passer rating. And Jackson was able to savor the moment, leaning back in his chair and relaxing in the fourth quarter, watching his team complete the rout.

MVP odds after Week 10

MVP contender Odds Implied probability 
Josh Allen+35322.08%
Lamar Jackson +10947.85%
Saquon Barkley+140140.71%
Joe Burrow +24293.95%

Jackson's moment as Week 10 MVP 
Cincy once again found themselves in the receiving role, the culmination of a dominant three-game winning streak for the Ravens' rock star. Jackson totaled four tackles for the second time in the game against the Bengals, leading the Ravens to a 35-34 victory. Although the Ravens had a decent finish to the campaign, this crushing defeat completely eliminated Cincinnati's playoff hopes. I envision Lamar's face painted on many Bengals fans' dartboards.

MVP odds after Week 11.

MVP contender Odds Implied probability 
Josh Allen+14041.67%
Lamar Jackson +19533.90%
Saquon Barkley+53501.83%
Joe Burrow +30833.14%

Allen's moment as Week 11 MVP 
Week 11 marked the beginning of a turning point in the MVP marathon. The fall of Jackson and the Ravens coincided with the rise of Allen, with the latter creating the most impressive MVP moment of the season that resonated deeply with soccer fans. And, while I'm only speculating, it probably influenced MVP selections as well.  

Allen's famous fourth-and-two throw showcased his instincts, strength, speed, agility and grit. His locomotive-like 26-yard gallop ended Kansas City's unbeaten streak and dramatically lifted Allen to the top of the MVP odds table.

MVP odds after Week 13.

MVP contender Odds Implied probability 
Josh Allen-24370.85%
Lamar Jackson +9799.27%
Saquon Barkley+38420.66%
Joe Burrow +185710.54%

Allen's moment as Week 13 MVP 
The snowy mageddon in Buffalo featured a disheveled San Francisco 49ers and a panting Allen, who raised the bar even higher after his magical moment in the game against the Chiefs. Allen caught his own touchdown in a play that will forever go down in the annals of the NFL's best moments. 

MVP odds after Week 14

MVP contender Odds Implied probability 
Josh Allen-41370.85%
Lamar Jackson +12299.27%
Saquon Barkley+45118.15%
Joe Burrow +125710.79%

Allen's moment as the MVP of Week 14 
Despite a 44-42 loss to the Los Angeles Rams, Allen became the first quarterback to score three rushing touchdowns and three passing touchdowns in the same game. He also gained 424 yards. Not bad for a loss.  

MVP odds after Week 15.

MVP contender Odds Implied probability 
Josh Allen-98290.76%
Lamar Jackson +67912.84%
Saquon Barkley+14716.37%
Joe Burrow +132140.75%

Jackson's moment as Week 15 MVP
The Ravens' rest week gave Jackson time to come to his senses, take a step back and regroup. He was visibly upset after Baltimore's Week 13 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles and made no excuses. Jackson took advantage of that contained energy and came back like a man possessed.

Jackson threw five touchdowns for the second time in the regular season. Granted, they were made against a New York Giants team that often had more in common with a college team. Nevertheless, it was an outstanding performance that provided momentum for the MVP designation.

Allen's moment as the MVP of Week 15
Defeating the Detroit Lions at Ford Field is an admirable accomplishment in itself. When you consider that the Bills quarterback threw for four more touchdowns (two in a row and two passing) and gained 430 yards, you can see why he had over a 90% chance of winning. Oh, and did I mention he broke the Lions' record-setting 11-game winning streak?

MVP odds after Week 18

MVP contender Odds Implied probability 
Josh Allen-48582.91%
Lamar Jackson +23422.22%
Saquon Barkley+77501.27%
Joe Burrow +250000.40%

Jackson's moment as the MVP of Week 18
Jackson cruised through the final four weeks of the regular season, leading the Ravens to a 4-0 record and beating the Giants, Pittsburgh Steelers, Houston Texans and Cleveland Browns by a combined score of 135-43. He threw 12 touchdowns, ran for one and had just one pick.

The theme of our article on MVP odds after Week 18 was “Jackson takes one last step toward repeating.” He certainly left everything he could on the field, and if the All-Pro team selection and loud, historic endorsement is anything to judge by, he may have beaten Allen to the finish line by a small margin, or should we say a large margin?  

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