One of the best NFL MVP races in league history is approaching its final week.

Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen has led the way among NFL MVPs for most of the 2024 season, but a decline in performance paired with the brilliant performance of Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson of late has the reigning award winner catching up to the MVP favorite ahead of Week 18.

So which player deserves the 2024 NFL MVP award, and which one should you bet on in the final week? We'll break it down from all angles, comparing Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson and making our NFL MVP predictions.

Passing
Historically, the MVP award goes to the player who leads the NFL in key metrics like touchdowns and QBR. That makes this year's race especially tricky considering Jackson has been at or near the top of the leaderboard all season.

Entering Week 18, the Ravens QB leads the NFL in QBR (77.6) and TDs (8.8%), just as he did in 2019 when he won his first MVP award. He also leads the NFL in passer rating (121.6) and yards per attempt (8.9), and his adjusted net yards per attempt (9.48) - his overall passer success rate - is well ahead of Allen, who ranks third (7.95).

Jackson also ranks in the top 10 in completion percentage (67.9%), while Allen is outside the top 20 (63.8%), even though his interception rate is down. In fact, it's hard to find a statistic where Allen has an advantage through the air, even though he has thrown 41 more throws.

Both quarterbacks have made incredible combinations, but the reigning MVP winner has been the better passer of the two this season.

Advantage: Lamar Jackson

Rushing
This category seems to be the most difficult of all, as it depends on what you value in a quarterback and how you evaluate his performance as a runner.

Jackson is known as the more dynamic runner - in Week 17, he set a historic record for the most yards gained by a quarterback (6,110). He has already gained more yards this season (852) than he did last season (821) when he was MVP. He also leads the NFL in yards per pass (6.6) for the second consecutive season and fourth time in his career.

Yet it's Allen who holds the edge in touchdowns (12) and first downs (51) despite 28 fewer passes in 16 starts. Half of his 102 picks have resulted in first downs, and he leads the NFL in pick success rate (63.9 percent) and PFF's passer rating (94).

Here's the dilemma: nearly half of those Allen points were scored at the goal line in a chest-thumping style. That's a credit to his running back-like stature, but it becomes less impressive after we saw players like Kenny Pickett score the same way on Sunday.

Meanwhile, Jackson was the more explosive runner with eight runs for 20-plus yards - seventh best among all players - and his dual-threat ability was the catalyst for Derrick Henry's monster effort in the race for NFL Offensive Player of the Year.

In my estimation, the Ravens QB created more relative value with his legs than one would expect from a backup player, which is ultimately what the MVP award is all about. We give this award to Jackson, but you can make a strong argument for either player.

Advantage: Lamar Jackson

Red Zone
This is where Allen shows off his running ability, though this category isn't as “stray” as one might expect given Jackson's brilliant ability inside the 20-yard line.

Since Week 18, Jackson leads the NFL in red zone touchdowns (29) and has thrown just two interceptions on 61 such attempts. He ranks first in yards per attempt (6.0) and fourth in completion percentage (68.9 percent) in the red zone, and has scored three of his four touchdowns in that area.

Let me repeat something I said above: Jackson completed 61 passes within the 20-meter zone, and 29 of those were touchdowns. No one else has come close to that kind of efficiency.
Allen also had success in the red zone. All but one of his 12 rushing touchdowns came within 20 yards, and he added 20 passing touchdowns - including one to himself - with one interception in that area of the field.

However, he completed less than 55% of his passes inside the 20-yard line and was picked off seven times in that zone, the third-lowest rate among all passers. Even with Allen scoring points with a push, I just can't ignore how spectacular Jackson is with his hands and feet in the end zone.

Advantage: Lamar Jackson

Turnovers
The crux of Allen's resurgence as an MVP favorite lies in his ability to cut down on the number of interceptions he has suffered throughout his seven-year career.

The 28-year-old has thrown just six interceptions in 16 games after throwing 18 interceptions in 17 games last year. He has also fumbled just five times (two losses), which is also the fewest of his career after fumbling seven times last season.

Still, it's hard to say that gives Allen a distinct advantage when Jackson has even fewer interceptions (four) in his 16 starts, even with 10 fumbles (five lost).

According to PFF, Jackson has been responsible for eight interceptions at a 1.5 percent rate. Allen nearly doubled that total, accounting for 15 interceptions on 2.7 percent of his attempts in Week 17. Jackson also has a lower interception percentage (0.9%) than Allen (1.2%) despite his teammates throwing more passes than the Bills' receiving corps.

Here's the reality: Allen probably should have more interceptions than Jackson, but he doesn't, and the Bills offense has thrown the fewest interceptions in the NFL (eight), allowing it to power its most efficient offense in the Allen era. Buffalo's QB wins this matchup by a wide margin.

Advantage: Josh Allen

Quality wins
Ironically, this is Allen's most notable win despite losing in a head-to-head matchup with Jackson when these MVP candidates battled in a 35-10 duel with Baltimore in Week 4.

Since then, the Bills have beaten the Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions, who lead the latest Super Bowl odds in Week 18, and have won 10 of their last 11 games. Their only loss came in Week 14 to the Los Angeles Rams, 44-42, when Allen became the first player in NFL history to account for three assists and three interceptions in a single game.

The Ravens had their best win over Allen and Co. in September, but they lost to the Chiefs in Week 1 and to the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 13. Those are the only clear contenders Baltimore has faced this season.

Sometimes in the race for MVP, it's more important who you beat (and when you beat them) than how you perform throughout a four-month schedule. That's one of the reasons why Allen is the favorite in this race, and he easily deserves to win this nomination.

Advantage: Josh Allen

Consistency
You can argue this all you want, and you'll probably have a decent argument. That's how special these two have been throughout the season.

Jackson has been a walking highlight reel since the first week of the season, though his Week 11 setback against the Pittsburgh Steelers nearly put an end to his MVP candidacy. In Week 18, he put together a great five-game streak, scoring 16 touchdowns and one interception, helping the Ravens win the AFC North.

Allen endured a rough start to the season, including that ugly loss in Baltimore, but he has been an effective and consistent player for the Bills over the last 11 weeks. After scoring three touchdowns on Sunday, he's thrown 18 touchdowns with one interception over the last five weeks, putting the finishing touches on a list of potential MVPs.

However, if we're really evaluating all of his accomplishments, including highs and lows, it's easier to find a winner here. Jackson has posted a rating below 100 only once in his last 14 starts; Allen has done it four times in his last eight games, and his two worst rated games are both worse than Jackson's worst game in Pittsburgh.

Advantage: Lamar Jackson

Extended Stats
Both quarterbacks would have been worthy MVP candidates in any other season, but their expanded stats speak to how dominant they were in 2024.

Let's start with Allen, who had 34 power-play throws (BTT) and a 7.0% power-play shooting rate in Week 17. We're still waiting for Sunday's data, but it's safe to assume that after those throws against the New York Jets, he'll lead the league in both categories:

Allen also entered the week with the highest grade in the NFL (94), which would be a new record in the PFF era. Given his elite and efficient passing numbers, it's a compelling argument that the Bills star could win the first MVP award of his career.

Even still, Jackson ranks No. 1 in overall PFF rating (93.5) and is tied with Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow, who is still undead in this race, in passer rating (92.3). Allen ranks third and eighth, respectively, among regular starters even with his aforementioned statistical feats.

Jackson is also ahead of only Burrow in total expected points added (EPA) and ranks first in QBR (77.8), ahead of Allen (76.5), who has correlated strongly with MVP winners in the past. He also leads the NFL's most efficient offense in EPA/game (0.21) and EPA/pass (0.40), though Buffalo ranks second in both.

No matter how you look at it, it's a very close race by advanced metrics. But even they favor Jackson in the final week of the season.

Advantage: Lamar Jackson

Supporting cast
This may be the most important factor in favor of Allen's MVP candidacy, and it's the best argument for overlooking Jackson's advantage in virtually every statistical measure - even if it's not the collapse some are talking about.

Allen lost his favorite target in the offseason after the Bills traded star wideout Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans. In addition, the team's defense was gutted in free agency to make room in the coffers for what was supposed to be a mini-rebuild year in Buffalo.

Instead, Allen led arguably the worst roster of his career to a 12-3 record, which is the best for the Bills since Allen was drafted in 2018. The emergence of running back James Cook and the midseason acquisition of receiver Amari Cooper have helped the cause, but the defense is still below average despite the team's success so far.

At the same time, Jackson has the best supporting cast of stars playing the skill position in his six years as a regular on the team. Henry had a sensational season in his debut game in Baltimore, and fullback Mark Andrews continues to shine as one of the best at his position.

The Ravens offensive line has been terribly shaky at times this season, so Jackson's career-best campaign deserves praise not only because of the circumstances, but because Baltimore's defense played a key role in turning the season around. In the end, the win goes to Allen.

Advantage: Josh Allen

Josh Allen vs. Lamar Jackson is the MVP of the deciding games
There's no getting around it: Allen was responsible for the signature play of the 2024 NFL season, and that may be the strongest argument for why he remains the favorite to be named MVP.

In the most recent episode of one of the league's best rivalries, Allen put his team on their heels in Week 11 against the Chiefs and punched in a 26-yard touchdown pass with 4 seconds left to end the game. That elevated him to the status of favorite in that race and he hasn't looked back since.
After a week of rest, Allen threw a touchdown pass to himself in the snow against the San Francisco 49ers to further separate himself from the pack. He then threw for a record six touchdowns in a record-setting loss against the Rams, and then a week later dismantled former title favorite Lions to seemingly end the race for good.

Nevertheless, Jackson had MVP showings all year - perhaps more so - and surpassed even the most ridiculous moments of his past winning campaigns.

Remember when he felled Bengals quarterback Sam Hubbard and then threw a dart to Isaiah Likely to spark a comeback in Week 5 against division rivals?

Jackson racked up 348 yards and four touchdowns in that wild overtime victory. In Week 7, he threw five pucks in a game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday Night Football, and two weeks later he posted a perfect passer rating against an elite Denver Broncos defense.

And on Christmas Day, he posted the fifth-highest QBR in NFL history (99.8), taunting Houston Texans defenders for 50 minutes before the Ravens let the dogs loose early in the fourth quarter.

Let's be honest with ourselves: isn't that what an MVP looks like?

Josh Allen vs. Lamar Jackson: The Verdict
The market treats this award differently. I think differently, and it seems most NFL intellectuals lean toward that opinion as well.

Jackson had one of the best seasons for a quarterback in NFL history, and his play on the field is arguably even more impressive than his stats on paper. He's done all of this behind an unstable team's offensive line that has a habit of blowing late-game leads, and that's the only reason the Ravens have a worse record than the Bills.

Let's take our minds off of 4th-and-2 for a second. What makes Allen better than Jackson, other than the fact that he hasn't won this award before? Other than that one signature play and a few goal-line assists, what has he done in 2024 that his counterpart hasn't done or surpassed?

Allen has a worse supporting cast, but he still accumulated a higher number of effective shots. That matters in a value-added race. But just about every metric says Jackson brings more value to his team per game and cumulatively, and he's made a dozen key throws this season that are truly “one-of-a-kind.”

Voter fatigue seems to be playing a bigger role here than many would like to admit. As Tony Romo said at the end of Sunday's broadcast of the Bills-Jets game, if Allen had won two MVP awards before and Jackson had won none, would this even be a discussion?

That's why Jackson would get my vote if the season ended today. And with one week left in the regular season, I don't think things will change after Week 18.

My top pick for NFL MVP: Lamar Jackson

Mind-blowing plays, amazing stats, ridiculous stats.... Let me list why Jackson deserves a third MVP trophy.

I admit my bias: I watched almost every game Jackson played and confidently bet on him to be MVP for the 2019 and 2023 seasons. I didn't bet on him this season because I was confident voters wouldn't reward him in future years, even if he had another historic campaign.

That preseason hunch might turn out to be correct after all. But with such a brilliant resume and the backing of a two-time winner in contention for another trophy, it's hard for me not to buy him at +275 odds at Caesars, which would turn a $100 bet into a $275 profit if voters come around next week.

The only bet I'd make in this market - and the one I made Saturday night - is Barrow winning the MVP nomination at +2500 odds. If the Bengals make it to the postseason, he'll have a heck of an argument as the league leader in the only statistic not topped by Jackson.

In the end, Allen can prove that none of that matters. He's the favorite for a reason. But the odds are 50/50 in this race, so grab those plus odds while you can and hope that one of the best seasons we've ever seen leads to appropriate honors.

Best odds: +275 via Caesars | Estimated probability: 26.67%.