After an impressive 3-1 win over Canada, the U.S. became the first team to clinch a trip to the finals on Thursday. On Monday (8 p.m. ET, ABC), the Americans will meet a Sweden team that desperately needs a win in the final match of the Four Nations Face-Off round.
Sweden can still advance to the finals, but to do so, the Swedes will need to win in regulation time, and the Canada vs. Finland matchup will have to go into overtime. This scenario lays the foundation for our predictions and forecasts for the Sweden vs USA match.
Who will win the Sweden vs USA match?
USA 3-way ML .
This is another case of me not liking the odds, but here we are again. A spot in Thursday's final is already secured after an exciting, emotion-filled matchup, but it's not an ideal scenario.
The Americans have every chance of failing. However, the situation for Sweden - a team that needs to win in regulation time to have any chance of reaching the final - is desperate.
And while that desperation may spur the Three Crowns on, it may also push them too far.
Therefore, the probability that the U.S. team will defeat the Swedes in regulation time is very high.
If the game is tied, Sweden's head coach Sam Hallam will use his goalie. A win in overtime will not be enough, so the Swedes will come out in full force.
The Americans have a great defense led by the indomitable Connor Hellebuyck. That combination should be enough for a third straight win, even if Matthew Tkachuk doesn't play, which is likely given the circumstances.
This is a three-star bet because of the high odds, and a $10 win would yield a $6.25 profit.
What will be the score in the match Sweden - USA ?
More than 5.5 goals.
I'm betting on the over due to the circumstances.
The probability of a goal is higher considering Sweden is in a win-or-go-home situation. This should be a tight game and the Swedes will press the pressure in the third period if the game is tied or they are trailing. This will give Team USA the perfect opportunity to counterattack and score on the break.
Unless Sweden is ahead at the end, I predict the home team will be able to score at least one goal into an empty net, if not more. A $10 bet will yield a profit of $8.33 if at least six goals are scored. Expect a 4-2 victory for the USA.
Odds for Sweden vs USA
| Market | Sweden | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +175 | -236 |
| Puck line | +1.5 (-150) | -1.5 (+110) |
| Over/Under | Over 5.5 (-120) | Under 5.5 (+100) |
Sweden vs. USA
| Sweden | USA |
|---|---|
| Viktor Arvidsson | Matt Boldy |
| Jesper Bratt | Kyle Connor |
| Leo Carlsson | Jack Eichel |
| Joel Eriksson Ek | Jake Guentzel |
| Filip Forsberg | Jack Hughes |
| Rickard Rakell | Chris Kreider |
| Adrian Kempe | Dylan Larkin |
| Elias Lindholm | Auston Matthews |
| William Nylander | Brock Nelson |
| Gustav Nyqvist | Matthew Tkachuk |
| Elias Pettersson | Brady Tkachuk |
| Lucas Raymond | Vincent Trocheck |
| Mika Zibanejad | Brock Faber |
| Rasmus Andersson | Adam Fox |
| Jonas Brodin | Noah Hanifin |
| Rasmus Dahlin | Charlie McAvoy |
| Mattias Ekholm | Jaccob Slavin |
| Gustav Forsling | Zach Werenski |
| Victor Hedman | Jake Sanderson |
| Erik Karlsson | Connor Hellebuyck |
| Filip Gustavsson | Jake Oettinger |
| Linus Ullmark | Jeremy Swayman |
When will the Sweden vs USA match take place?
When: Monday, Feb. 17.
Scoring: 8:00 p.m. ET
Where: TD Garden (Boston)
How to watch: ABC, Sportsnet
Favorite: USA
