All roads lead through Kansas City. For the sixth time in the last seven seasons, the Kansas City Chiefs will host an AFC championship team at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (6:30 p.m. ET, CBS).
And for the fourth time in the last five seasons, the Buffalo Bills will try to derail their Super Bowl quest. We all know what happened the first three times, with Josh Allen and Co. agonizingly losing each time.
Our early projections, predictions and odds for Sunday's Bills vs. Chiefs matchup suggest that Kansas City will do what it almost always does: prevail in the face of incredible pressure and expectations.
The following analysis is in addition to our earlier predictions for the Bills vs. Eagles matchup.
My early prediction for the Bills vs Chiefs game: Chiefs -1.5
NFL matchup predictions are made on Sunday; odds are subject to change. Our new NFL odds tool will help you find the best odds for any market among legal sports bettors in your area!
Prediction: Chiefs -1.5
Best Odds: -108 on FanDuel | Estimated Odds: 51.92%
Part of me expects Josh Allen to finally exorcise the Chiefs' demons and get revenge on Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Co. The 2025 AFC Championship Game represents the Bills' best chance to do just that.
Thanks to Allen and his penchant for MVPs, the Bills beat the Chiefs 30-21 in the regular season.
However - and this is important - the Chiefs play at home, where they are 4-1 in their last four AFC Championships. One of those triumphs was over Allen and his Bills.
It's hard to bet against a team that hasn't given any reason to do so. They were lucky countless times in the regular season, but luck has nothing to do with their success in the postseason.
Yes, they were fortunate to get some timely favorable calls against Houston Texans last week. But overall, the Chiefs rarely let up in the most crucial moments. The Bills have plenty to motivate themselves, but the Chiefs are also two wins away from doing what no team has been able to do: win three Super Bowls in a row.
The Chiefs are the healthiest of the two teams
Isaiah Pacheco has been nearly ineffective since returning from injury, but can produce an explosive game. The Chiefs made do without his services in the regular season in Buffalo, and he can add momentum to the champions' offense.
Andy Reid said his team was without any major injuries in the game against Houston.
I'm not sure the same can be said for the Bills. Starting quarterback Taylor Rapp, arguably Buffalo's most influential defensive lineman, was ruled out of the game against Baltimore because of a hip injury, and cornerback Taron Johnson was out late because of shoulder problems.
Rapp threw an interception against Mahomes in the teams' last meeting in Week 11. In that game, Mahomes also intercepted a Terrell Bernard pass. Since then, Mahomes has thrown 12 touchdown passes and no interceptions.
We'll have to wait and see if they are available. In the meantime, the Chiefs are now the healthiest they've been all season. In addition, Mahomes is 16-3 in postseason play and his team hasn't allowed a field goal in eight straight games.
I bet against the Chiefs last season in Buffalo in a divisional round game, and I won't make that mistake again, especially at Arrowhead.
Don't miss our guide on how to bet on the NFL, or the best sportsbook stocks this week.
Check out the AFC and NFC Championship odds from our top NFL betting sites.
Moneyline
Best odds on Chiefs: -108 via FanDuel | Estimated probability: 51.92%
Best odds on the Bills: +105 via DraftKings | Estimated probability: 48.78%.
The betting lines won't change much ahead of Sunday's matchup. FanDuel offers the best moneyline odds for the defending champions. Most of our top bookmakers have the Bills favored to win at +105. If home field advantage wasn't factored in, this would be a pick'em.
Spread
Best odds on Chiefs: -1.5 (-108 on FanDuel) | Estimated probability: 51.92%
Best odds on the Bills: +1.5 (-108 on DraftKings) | Estimated probability: 51.92%
The Bills opened with a 1.5-point spread, and that's the general consensus of our top sports betting sites. I don't see the spread changing much. It could certainly increase a bit, though. The Bills could find themselves as 2.5-point underdogs at kickoff, though it probably won't be any more than that value.
Over/Ander
Best odds: 48.5 (-110) via BetMGM
Best Odds on Over: 48.5 (-105) via FanDuel
The total is set at 48.5. All of the top bookmakers agree at this stage. 51 points were scored in the first matchup, so the total may increase slightly. FanDuel offers a slightly more favorable price for a lower total than its competitors: a $10 bet will yield a profit of $9.52.
As of Monday, there is only a 30% chance of precipitation. It should be cold enough to snow, if it does fall. If the forecast doesn't change, it shouldn't affect the total.
How to watch the Bills vs. Chiefs game
- When: Sunday, Jan. 26
- Kickoff: 6:30 p.m. ET
- Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Mo.)
- How to watch: CBS
- Weather: 34 degrees, 30% chance of precipitation, winds 7 mph to 11 mph
- Favorite: Chiefs -1.5 (-108 via FanDuel)
