Justin Hebert and the Los Angeles Chargers look to secure a spot in the postseason with a win over the New England Patriots. The odds are very favorable for the Chargers to win the NFL playoffs.
Despite the predicted rainy conditions, my top predictions for the Chargers vs. Patriots matchup in Foxborough on Saturday at 1 p.m. ET (NFL Network) are overs. While the Chargers boast one of the best defenses in soccer, they have scored 67 points in the last two weeks and Los Angeles hosts a team that has scored 21+ points in two of their last three games.
The Chargers are 4.5-point favorites, but they will be without Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins is questionable. What do these injuries mean for Herbert and his offense?
Chargers vs. Patriots - NFL player predictions: Saturday
Odds are as of Thursday and subject to change.
Quentin Johnston touchdown prediction: any touchdown (+255 on DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 42.5 yards per rush (-113 on FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Justin Hebert Over 231.5 passing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Odds are subject to change. Our new NFL player odds tool will help you find the best odds for any market on legal sports networks in your area!
Touchdown prediction for Chargers vs. Patriots game
Quentin Johnston will score any touchdown (+255) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best Odds: +255 via DraftKings | Estimated Probability: 28.17%
Johnston leads the Chargers in touchdowns this season with eight. While Ladd McConkey has a lesser chance of scoring in this game, Johnston has thrown three more touchdowns than him and has caught a touchdown pass in two of his last three games.
The Patriots are allowing 1.5 touchdowns per game this season. That ranks 18th in the league. Justin Hebert has thrown multiple touchdown passes in consecutive weeks. The Patriots have struggled against the run lately, but the Chargers' backfield situation this week is concerning.
Johnston has been an end zone threat for this team all year. That won't change in a favorable matchup.
Three of our top sports betting sites offer this bet, with DraftKings offering the most favorable price. The next best odds for one of your Week 17 NFL predictions is +230 on FanDuel.
Best bets for the Chargers vs. Patriots matchup
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 42.5 rushing yards (-113) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best Odds: -113 on FanDuel | Estimated Probability: 53.05%
Stevenson has gained at least 60 yards in three straight games and five of the last six. It makes sense to worry about his prospects in a game against the Patriots as an underdog, but four of those five 60-yard games have come in losses.
Despite having one of the best defenses in the league, the Chargers don't protect the run very well. They rank 18th in rushing yards and allow 124.1 per game. Stephenson could have an outstanding game if the Patriots can keep this matchup close, as the Chargers are allowing 4.7 yards per pass, which is sixth in the NFL.
Four of the top five bookmakers are putting this total at 44.5. While bet365's -110 over total is the best bet available, I'll take the two extra yards for slightly worse odds on FanDuel.
Justin Hebert Over 231.5 passing yards (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best Odds: -110 via bet365 | Estimated Odds: 52.38%
The Chargers' backfield is not doing well in Week 17. Edwards is out and Dobbins is questionable after missing four games due to a knee injury. Even if Dobbins plays, I don't expect him to get many touches as the Chargers want him to be in top shape for the postseason.
With a shortage of backline players, the offense will fall entirely on the shoulders and hands of Herbert, who racked up 284 yards last week. That output ended a streak of four straight games with less than 220 passing yards.
The Patriots are allowing just 212.4 yards per game, while Josh Allen has 154. At first glance, this is an easy win considering how Herbert has been playing lately. But if you look deeper, it's clear that Hebert is in line for more than he usually gets. Don't fall into the trap.
Information on the Chargers vs. Patriots matchup
When: Saturday, Dec. 28
Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts.
How to watch: NFL Network
Weather: 42 degrees, 83% chance of precipitation, 5 mph winds S
Favorite: Chargers -4.5 (-105 on FanDuel)
