Matvei Michkov certainly answered the call, tallying 10 points in five games after MacLean Celebrini tallied eight in five. The Flyers rookie has regained the lead in the Calder Trophy odds table at our NHL betting sites.
He's the only player trading at minus odds, and his points-per-game average reflects well the reason why. Since John Tortorella benched him in early November, he's also a staggering plus-13. Looks like old man Torts can still make an impact on the younger generation.
Celebrini, Michkov's most formidable opponent, has scored points in six of his last eight games. Lane Hutson, Logan Stankoven and Dustin Wolf round out the five favorites.
Here are the latest notes on the Calder Trophy:
Lane Hutson is playing great offense with the Montreal Canadiens (19 points), but is struggling on one of the worst defensive teams. His minus-12 rating in 28 games is the worst among all rookies.
Logan Stankoven's Stars have the best chance at the Stanley Cup among the five favorites
Michkov leads all rookies in points (27), points per game (1), goals (11) and power-play points (12)
Wolf, the highest-rated goaltender among the 10 favorites, has lost his last three games, allowing 14 pucks
2024-25 Calder Trophy favorites.
Matvei Michkov (-200)
Torts said putting his star rookie on the bench was part of the process. That seems to have sent a great message to Michkov, who has been unstoppable since being benched for two games in early November.
Michkov was minus-8 in 13 games and is now plus-15, a staggering shift in 14 games.
In such a short time, Michkov has greatly improved his play on defense and in five-on-five play. Seven of his 10 points before he was benched were scored on the power play. Since then, 12 of his 17 points have been scored on the power play, proving he's not just a power play specialist.
Over the past seven days, the odds on him winning have dropped from +115 to -200. That means the win probability has changed from 46.51% to 66.67%. At this expensive price, it's best to leave it as it is, as a winning bet of $10 will only yield a profit of $5.
There's still a lot of season ahead, so we'll see what happens in the coming weeks.
Best odds: -200 via BetRivers | Estimated probability: 66.67%
Maclin Celebrini (+200).
Celebrini is a real player and will fulfill all expectations surrounding his selection. Thanks to a recurring hip injury, he endured a disappointing first month in the NHL. However, he has recovered better than anyone could have hoped and is scoring points at an elite pace.
Despite his recent slump, Celebrini has 11 points in his last 10 games and is scoring 0.84 points per game, second only to Michkov.
He's scored 1.20 points per game since Nov. 20, second only to Michkov. It's a true two-horse race at this point, and the Sharks' No. 1 draft pick still has work to do to catch up to the surging Michkov.
Best odds: +200 on DraftKings | Estimated odds: 33.33%.
My 2025 player to keep an eye on for the Calder Trophy
Logan Stankoven (+4000)
The odds on Stankoven to win have dropped sharply over the past week from +800 to +4000. This sharp decline is due to a significant slowdown in his rate of growth, with the 21-year-old scoring just one point in his previous seven matches.
With just two points in his last 10 matches, he needs to pick himself up quickly to maintain his relevance in this race.
He is still tied with Wolff for fourth on the shortest odds list. However, he won't be able to keep Celebrini and Michkov within sight unless he scores points more consistently.
Right now, a winning bet of $10 would yield a profit of $400. While the potential profit is becoming increasingly attractive, his lack of performance is quickly taking him out of contention.
Still, we still have nearly five months left in the season for Stankoven to get better.
Best odds: +4000 at DraftKings | Estimated odds: 2.44%.
How to bet on Calder Trophy futures odds
Before betting on Calder Trophy futures odds, there are a few important tips to keep in mind, including:
Game Time: Make sure the player you're betting on will be on the ice at all times. While picking a potentially great rookie playing for a serious contender like Stankoven has a lot of advantages, it's important to make sure he's going to get consistent playing minutes.
How good is the team they play for? While some rookies are so elite that the team they play for doesn't matter, such as Bedard in Chicago, not all players fall into that category. Unless they are guaranteed to score points, don't be in a rush to buy rookies who play for terrible teams. At least you'll know they'll get plenty of ice time.
Will they be the star of the show? First-round pick Celebrini will invariably be the star of the show in San Jose, making him a great candidate for the Calder Trophy.
The same can be said for Wolff, who should be Calgary's No. 1 goaltender for the 2024-25 season. He will have the opportunity to prove himself, and many will be watching his every move. While things could go one of two ways, Wolf will be the architect of his Calder Trophy destiny.
Second-year players who make the cut: Stankoven played 24 games for the Stars last year, one short of the 25-game threshold to qualify for the Calder Trophy.
That makes him arguably the best candidate for the award in 2024-25. He played an outstanding role in the Western Conference Finals and has an edge over other “rookies.”
College or overseas experience: More mature players who have already labored in other professional leagues around the world, like Michkov, who has 91 games in the KHL under his belt, have an advantage over rookies coming to the NHL straight out of juniors.
The same, though not to the same extent, can be said for players who spent a few years in college. Just make sure they make the roster in training camp.
Position Selection: Like the Hart Trophy, the Calder Trophy is often awarded to offensive players who draw attention and consistently bring in points. The last time a goalie won the award was in the 2008-09 season, and of the 11 previous winners, only three have been defensemen.
Calder Trophy odds over time
Player | July 1 (opening odds) | July 24 | Dec. 11 |
---|---|---|---|
Matvei Michkov | +500 | +450 | -220 |
Macklin Celebrini | +500 | +500 | +200 |
Cutter Gauthier | +600 | +650 | +10000 |
Will Smith | +600 | +700 | +7500 |
Logan Stankoven | +600 | +550 | +3000 |
Dustin Wolf | +1000 | +1000 | +4000 |
Lane Hutson | +1000 | +1000 | +1200 |
Yaroslav Askarov | +4000 | +5000 | +10000 |
Mavrik Bourque | +4000 | +3000 | +30000 |
Jesper Wallstedt | +4000 | +3500 | OFF |
Fabian Lysell | +5000 | +5000 | OFF |
Liam Ohgren | +5000 | +7500 | OFF |
Gavin Brindley | +7500 | +7500 | OFF |
Calder Trophy winners from previous years
Bedard pulled ahead in the race for the Calder Trophy last season, with some sports clubs closing the market fairly early. The 2024-25 campaign will be an evenly contested race between the leading candidates.
Year | Player | Position | Team | Preseason Odds |
---|---|---|---|---|
2023-24 | Connor Bedard | C | Chicago Blackhawks | -135 |
2022-23 | Matty Beniers | C | Seattle Kraken | +400 |
2021-22 | Moritz Seider | D | Detroit Red Wings | +1200 |
2020-21 | Kirill Kaprizov | LW | Minnesota Wild | +400 |
2019-20 | Cale Makar | D | Colorado Avalanche | +400 |
2018-19 | Elias Pettersson | C | Vancouver Canucks | +240 |
2017-18 | Mathew Barzal | C | New York Islanders | +1800 |
2016-17 | Auston Matthews | C | Toronto Maple Leafs | -130 |
2015-16 | Artemi Panarin | LW | Chicago Blackhawks | +2200 |
2014-15 | Aaron Ekblad | D | Florida Panthers | +700 |
2013-14 | Nathan MacKinnon | C | Colorado Avalanche | N/A |
FAQs about the Calder Trophy.
Who is the favorite to win the Calder Trophy?
Philadelphia Flyers forward Matvei Michkov is the favorite to win the Calder Trophy for the 2024-25 season at odds of -200. According to our odds calculator, he has a 66.67% chance of winning.
Who won the Calder Trophy last year?
Chicago Blackhawks center Connor Bedard won the Calder Trophy last year with 22 goals and 61 points in 68 games.
When will the Calder Trophy be awarded?
The Professional Hockey Writers Association vote must be submitted before the Stanley Cup playoffs begin. Last year's Calder Trophy was announced at the NHL awards ceremony on June 27.
How many players selected at the No. 1 pick in the draft won the Calder Trophy?
Twelve players selected at the draft with the No. 1 overall pick have won the Calder Trophy. They include Bedard, Auston Matthews, Mario Lemieux, Nathan MacKinnon, Patrick Kane, Alexander Ovechkin, Aaron Ekblad, Gilbert Perreault, Denis Potvin, Dale Hawerchuk, Bobby Smith and Brian Berard.
When was the last time a goalie won the Calder Trophy?
Steve Mason was the last goalie to win the Calder Trophy. He won the award with the Columbus Blue Jackets during the 2008-09 season.
How many goalies have won the Calder Trophy?
Sixteen goalies have won the Calder Trophy, but only three since 2000 (Mason, Andrew Raycroft, Evgeni Nabokov).