Two teams that have been upset by Vanderbilt in recent days will meet tonight at 7 PM ET (ESPN) at the Food City Center in Knoxville, Tennessee when Kentucky (14-5) plays Tennessee (17-3).
While the Volunteers just lost to Auburn, the favorite in March Madness, my predictions for the Kentucky vs. Tennessee matchup suggest Rick Barnes' team will return to their road as a 10-point favorite.
Kentucky - Tennessee matchup predictions today
College basketball predictions based on odds from the best March Madness betting sites.
Against the Spread: Tennessee -10 (-110 via bet365) vs. opponent ⭐⭐⭐⭐
My top pick: Zachary Zeigler Over 21.5 points and assists (-115 on FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
ATS prediction for Kentucky vs. Tennessee
Tennessee will play with the following score: -10 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
After a loss to Vanderbilt last week, Tennessee got back on track, beating Mississippi State by 12 points and then handling Auburn on the road. The Tigers lost by missing a three at the last second, and this was a team that had Joni Broome, Cooper Flagg's only competitor in the race for the Wooden Award, returning.
The Wolves beat Auburn by seven points and are now 13-7 on the season, while Kentucky is just 9-10 and is coming off season-ending losses to Vandy and Alabama, both of whom they were favored against. Both losses highlighted Mark Pope's team's problems on defense, ranking 299th in points allowed per game (76.0) and 81st in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to KenPom.
The combination of Chaz Lanier (18.0 PPG) and Zachay Zeigler (12.3 PPG, 7.5 APG) should give the Wildcats defense all it can handle. It is the poor play of Kentucky's defense that makes it seem like they are in a shootout every night, but the Vols have the best defense in the country - first in efficiency, third in points allowed (58.4).
The Wildcats will have too much trouble penetrating a defense that holds opponents to the second-best field goal percentage in the country (36%) to cover. If Tennessee closes out a third straight game, a $10 bet would yield a $9.09 profit.
Best odds: -110 via bet365 | Estimated probability: 52.38%
Best predictions for Kentucky - Tennessee game
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Zachay Zeigler Over 21.5 points and assists ⭐⭐⭐⭐
While Lanier may be Tennessee's leading scorer, Zeigler is the heart and soul of this team on both ends of the court. The 5-foot-9-inch two-time All-SEC honoree is one of the best passers in the country and one of three players averaging 12+ points per game and 7+ points per game.
Given Kentucky's problems on defense, Zeigler could surpass the 21.5 points and assists mark for the 10th time this season. The Wildcats rank 355th in assists per game (12.5) and 16th in the SEC (13.8).
Apples should come easy for Zeigler when Lanier is covering him, and his ability to hit from the free throw line will also come in handy - Kentucky ranks 16th in the SEC in free throws per game (26.8). If Zeigler shoots and scores more, a $10 bet would yield a profit of $8.70.
Best odds: -115 on FanDuel | Estimated probability: 53.49%
Kentucky vs Tennessee Kickoff Odds
Spread: Kentucky +8.5 (-110) | Tennessee -8.5 (-110)
Over/Under: Over 148 (-110) | Under 148 (-110)
Moneyline: Kentucky +320 | Tennessee -400
Kentucky vs Tennessee Match Information
When: Tuesday, January 28.
Kickoff: 7 p.m. ET
Where: Food City Center (Knoxville, Tenn.)
How to watch: ESPN
Favorite: Tennessee -10 (-110 via bet365)
