ACC-leading Duke (22-3) will face a struggling Virginia (13-12) team on Monday at John Paul Jones Arena in Charlottesville, Virginia. Kickoff for the game is set for 8 p.m. ET (ESPN).
Led by Cooper Flagg, the Blue Devils are on top, and my prediction for the Duke vs. Virginia game suggests the freshman phenom will lead John Scheyer's team to victory as a 14.5-point favorite.
Prediction for the Duke vs Virginia matchup including odds
Duke will overcome the spread: -14.5 .
Barring a loss to Clemson last week, Duke has been a well-oiled machine over the past three months. Since an 84-78 win over No. 1 Auburn on Dec. 4, the Blue Devils are 17-1 overall and 11-7 ATS over that span thanks to Flagg elevating his game and becoming a favorite.
Flagg and fellow freshman Con Knooppel have led Duke to the No. 3 ranking in offensive efficiency. They should take advantage of Virginia's uncharacteristically weak defense (115th in efficiency). In ACC play, the Cavaliers rank 14th in two-point shooting percentage (52.5%) and 10th in three-point shooting percentage (35.9%).
Meanwhile, Duke leads the conference in field goal percentage (50.5%), three-point shooting percentage (39.3%) and points per game average (82.4%). His defense is also capable of stopping the Cavs' unimportant offense. Thanks to Flagg, the Blue Devils hold the sixth-best scoring offense in the country (60.8%) and seventh-best field goal percentage (38.4%).
Virginia simply won't have enough offense to sustain this matchup with Flagg playing like this - the Cavs rank 353rd in the country in scoring (64.6). If the Blue Devils close out the scoring for the 16th time this season, a $10 bet would yield a profit of $9.09.
Best predictions for the Duke vs. Virginia matchup
Cooper Flagg over 3.5 assists.
Every time Flagg steps on the floor, he lives up to the expectations of being picked #1 in the NBA Draft odds. He's the only player in the ACC to rack up 17+ PPG, 7+ RPG, and 4+ APG, proving just how well developed he is on offense.
Flagg's ability to facilitate will be useful against a Virginia team that is dishing out the second-most assists per game in the ACC (11.9). His status as a top scorer should lead to defenders watching him too closely and getting his teammates open.
With Knappel and Tyrese Proctor scoring at a high level, Flagg should have plenty of opportunities to rack up more than 3.5 assists for the 13th time in 25 games. And a $10 bet would yield a profit of $8.93 if Flagg can make four-plus assists.
Duke vs. Virginia game prediction
AI score prediction: Duke 75 Virginia 60
Given Duke's strong offense and Virginia's struggles, the projected final score is Duke 75, Virginia 60.
A 14.5-point spread makes it reasonable to expect Duke to cover the score given their recent high-scoring games and overall performance.
A total of 131.5 points suggests a moderately high scoring game, and given Duke's offensive capabilities and Virginia's problems on defense, a bet on a higher total could be favorable.
While Virginia benefits from playing at home, their inconsistent play this season could limit that advantage, and Tyrese Proctor's recent 23-point game indicates that he is a key player in Duke's offense.
This ACC matchup is an important one for both teams, with Duke looking to maintain their conference lead and Virginia looking for success to lift their season.
Odds to start Duke vs. Virginia
Spread: Duke -14.5 (-110) | Virginia +14.5 (-110)
Over/Under: Over 129.5 (-115) | Under 129.5 (-105)
Moneyline: Duke -1100 | Virginia +700
Information about the Duke vs. Virginia matchup
When: Monday, Feb. 17
Kickoff: 8:00 p.m. ET
Where: John Paul Jones Arena (Charlottesville, Va.)
How to watch: ESPN
Favorite: Duke -15
