The last time the Washington Commanders won the Super Bowl, Jayden Daniels wasn't even born yet.
It's been a minute since that franchise cashed in on its Super Bowl chances, but the rookie quarterback has spearheaded a resurgence in Washington and led the Commanders to their first NFC Championship Game appearance since they hoisted the Lombardi Trophy over their heads at the conclusion of the 1991 season.
Here's a look at the Commanders' Super Bowl odds and why they'll win it all ahead of Sunday's matchup with the Philadelphia Eagles at 3 p.m. ET.
Super Bowl odds for the Chiefs.
Best odds: +850 via BetMGM | Estimated odds: 10.53%
Even after stunning the first-place Detroit Lions, who were Super Bowl favorites before a 45-31 loss to Washington in the NFL Divisional Round, the Chiefs still haven't earned the respect of our best NFL betting sites ahead of the NFC Championship.
And that's even after beating the Eagles in their last meeting in Week 16, though head coach Jalen Hurts spent most of that defeat on the bench. He enters Sunday's rematch with a new injury suffered in the divisional round, but is expected to play. Gabe Henderson makes the case for the Eagles' Super Bowl chances.
If the Chiefs can beat their division rivals again and defeat the AFC champion in the Super Bowl, a $10 bet at BetMGM will yield an $85 profit in February.
Why the Commanders will win the Super Bowl
Like most of you, I didn't predict the Chiefs would make it to the NFC Championship. Furthermore, in my NFL playoff predictions, they didn't even win that game.
But betting on the Super Bowl is more of a probability than a certainty. And since our best betting shops are giving roughly 10% odds to one of the four finalists, I keep asking the question that's been bugging me for months: why not the Chiefs?
Jaden Daniels is the truth
Here's another confession: In April, I didn't believe Daniels would make it to the NFL Draft. I believed Caleb Williams was unequivocally the best choice and would have selected Drake Mayeux with the No. 2 pick.
Then Daniels shattered my perceptions by producing a sensational rookie season that rivaled anything we've ever seen in NFL history. What's most impressive isn't just his raw numbers: he's been as successful as the league's best passers, ranking fourth in QBR (70.5) and sixth in completion percentage (69%), while intercepting the ball just nine times in 17 starts.
Most importantly, he's raised the talent level around him.
Terry McLaurin has long been a WR1 in hiding; this year, he ranked second in regular season TD receiving yards (13) and has scored in seven of his last eight games. Brian Robinson reached career highs in yards per pass (4.3) and touchdowns (eight), and 34-year-old Zach Ertz had 66 rebounds and seven red-zone scores, which ranks seventh in the NFL.
All of this has been made possible by the sheer brilliance of Daniels, who trains with virtual reality to prepare for the very situations he regularly makes easy. Just look at that throw he executed last Saturday and tell me that's not one of the best quarterbacks on the planet:
Still haven't recovered from that Jayden Daniels throw.
The coaches are ready for the moment
Daniels is the sun around which the rest of the Chiefs offense revolves. But we wouldn't see the light if his coaches didn't put him in a position to shine.
Let's give credit to offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury, who has written a new chapter in his coaching history after a failed stint in Arizona. Long known as an offensive guru, Kingsbury has simplified Washington's offense and made it a numbers game, which Daniels executes almost flawlessly.
If defenders load the box, he gives the ball to the wideout for a 2-on-1 when blockers are ready and the grass is green ahead. If receivers are overloaded, Daniels can drop a pass or keep it, which terrifies opponents. And if safeties get knocked down? Daniels throws one of the most beautiful deep balls in the entire league, and he's not afraid to let it fly.
Это свидетельствует о схеме, которую Кингсбери установил в Вашингтоне, и о доверии, которое он оказал Дэниелсу, чтобы тот действовал по своему усмотрению. Именно поэтому нападение «Командиров» заняло четвертое место по показателю EPA/игра (0,12) и коэффициенту успешности (47,7%) в регулярном сезоне.
На поле это не так заметно, но работу, которую проделал главный тренер Дэн Куинн, чтобы возродить эту франшизу, тоже нельзя переоценить. Коммандерс» верили, что победят „Львов“, даже если у нас с вами были свои сомнения. Кто мы такие, чтобы сомневаться в них сейчас?
Основные игроки «Командиров
Джейден Дэниелс, КБ: Дэниелс - одна из самых ярких звезд во всей лиге, и в постсезоне он поставил эту команду на уши. На долю новичка пришлось 32 % всех попыток бросков «Вашингтона» в двух играх, что вдвое больше, чем в регулярном чемпионате, а его оценка PFF под давлением составила 97,0 балла.
Терри Маклаурин, WR: Маклаурин незаметно стал одним из лучших ресиверов в футболе с тех пор, как был задрафтован в 2019 году, и наконец-то он продемонстрировал свой элитный набор навыков с компетентным КБ. Его 10 тачдаунов в красной зоне лидировали среди всех бродяг в регулярном сезоне, а его максимальная скорость сделала его смертельной угрозой для Дэниелса в плей-офф.
Zach Ertz, TE: Ertz's raw stats aren't flashy (654 yards, 7 TDs) in his final year, but the former three-time Pro Bowl tight end brings money in key situations for Washington. All seven of his regular season field goals came in the red zone, and he continues to shine in the postseason in the ultra-efficient Commander offense.
Bobby Wagner, midfielder: There are no big names on Washington's defense, but Wagner was named to 11 straight All-Pro teams and was the third highest-rated midfielder on PFF during the regular season. He led the team in rebounds (104) and ranked fifth in assists (28), and Daniels leading the offense just has to be useful.
How the Commanders have had success
- Record: 12-5 (regular season), 2-0 (postseason)
- Points per game: 28.5 PPG (fifth)
- Points against per game: 23.0 PPG (18th)
- Playoff wins: 23-20 (vs. Buccaneers), 45-31 (vs. Lions)
The Chiefs had the easiest schedule in the NFL by some metrics this season, but they still had 12 wins, with Daniels leading the way with four game-winning passes. They proved that late-game success was no fluke with another win over the Bucs in the wild-card round, and then defeated Detroit at Ford Field with a convincing victory in the divisional round.
They split the season series with the Eagles, who cruised to a 26-18 victory in Week 11, but fell apart in Week 16 without Hurts. In that game, Daniels threw five touchdowns and posted the highest EPA/play rate of any opposing quarterback against a high-powered Philadelphia defense.
