Kansas City and the Pittsburgh Steelers will take the field for the third time in 11 days in the first of two NFL Christmas Day matchups.
The Chiefs, who are one of the top Super Bowl contenders, won their 14th game last week and their 11th by a one-score margin.
If Kansas City wins, it will clinch the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
Pittsburgh is deadlocked with Baltimore at the top of the AFC North standings, but the team still controls its destiny in the title fight.
Our prediction for the Chiefs vs Steelers matchup is based on the fact that the return of George Pickens will significantly change the play of Pittsburgh's offense.
Kansas City is the favorite on the road with a 2.5 or 3 point spread. Kickoff at Akrisura Stadium is set for 1 p.m. ET, and it will be the first NFL game to be shown live on Netflix.
Chiefs vs Steelers matchup predictions: Christmas Day
NFL match predictions are based on odds from the top NFL betting sites. Odds are subject to change.
Against the Spread: Steelers +3 (-110 via Caesars) vs Chiefs ⭐⭐⭐⭐
My top pick: Pat Freiermuth Over 28.5 yards receiving (-113 on FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Prediction for the Chiefs vs. Steelers ATS: Week 17
Steelers will play by a margin of victory: +3 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best Odds: -110 via Caesars | Estimated Odds: 52.38%
Pickens could provide a boost
Betting on Pittsburgh's point spread relies heavily on the return to action of George Pickens, who has missed the last three games due to a hamstring injury. His status was upgraded to a full participant in practice on Monday.
George Pickens on his status for Wednesday: “I feel good, but it's not my decision to make. It's up to the trainers and the doctors. Whatever they tell me to do, I'll do.” pic.twitter.com/7BR61h14ci
- Shelby Cassesse (@ShelbyCassesse) December 23, 2024.
Russell Wilson dramatically disagreed with Pickens on and off the field in last week's game against Baltimore. Wilson posted a 67 QBR on 195 throws when Pickens was on the field, averaging 7.9 air yards per attempt on 29 rushes of 20-plus yards.
When Pickens wasn't on the field, Wilson went backwards 70 times and posted 32 QBR. He averaged 6.3 air yards per attempt on six passes for 20-plus yards.
Pickens caught 14 balls for 474 yards on deep targets in the first 15 weeks, while the rest of the Steelers caught nine of those balls for 276 yards combined.
Pickens' return to health is necessary to raise the ceiling of Pittsburgh's offense.
The Chiefs' non-explosive offense is catching up to them
The Chiefs had some strange offensive numbers last week that contributed to their overall success.
Kansas City caught 39 passes with 10+ players, including four of those passes against Houston in Week 16. However, the Chiefs have only 41 plays for 20+ yards (and three last week), which is 26th in the league.
I don't expect the Chiefs to have any success on offense against a Steelers defense that ranked in the top five in rushing yards per pass (3.94) last week.
Betting on Tomlin as an underdog
Head coach Mike Tomlin's track record as an underdog suggests the Steelers will make a difference.
When Tomlin's teams have played as underdogs after an outright loss, the Steelers have won 67% of the time (24-12 against the spread). And that coverage percentage is a respectable 64% (10-4 ATS) against non-divisional opponents.
Caesars is the only one among our NFL betting sites offering a key number three with a standard juice of -110. Betting on Pittsburgh at +3 is very important, as the Chiefs have won five games by three points or less.
I went even further in my NFL upset predictions by betting the Steelers will surprise Kansas City in one of your NFL Week 17 predictions.
Best predictions for the Chiefs vs. Steelers game
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Pat Freiermuth Over 28.5 yards receiving ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -113 on FanDuel | Estimated odds: 53.05%
Pat Freiermuth came out last week, scoring a touchdown in three straight games, but then went quiet. The good news for his prediction this week is that he caught all three targets and Kansas City was vulnerable to tight ends.
In Week 16, Kansas City ranked second in yards per target for tight ends (9.1) and ranked in the top five in tackle percentage (77.4 percent) for that position. And Pickens' likely return should divert defenders' attention away from Freiermuth.
This is why you pay Pat Freyermuth. pic.twitter.com/J8oJOK6i4p
- Andrew Fillipponi (@ThePoniExpress) December 15, 2024.
The veteran has averaged five receptions for 63.5 yards in the last two games when Pickens has been healthy. So this is a solid four-star play in a favorable matchup if Pickens takes the field.
All of the top NFL betting sites opened with O/U odds of 30.5, and now I'm off to FanDuel for a slightly more favorable number of 28.5. A $10 bet at -113 odds at FanDuel will bring $18.85.
Information about the Chiefs vs Steelers matchup
When: Wednesday, Dec. 25
Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
Where: Akrisura Stadium (Pittsburgh, PA).
How to watch: Netflix
Weather: 38 degrees, 25% chance of precipitation, 6 mph winds E
Favorite: Chiefs -3 (-105 via BetMGM)
