The clubhouse is all of us Buffalo Bills fans.
With only four teams left in the NFL playoffs, the Bills have the unenviable task of defeating Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in the AFC Championship Game.
In my opinion, whoever wins this game should win it against one of the NFC's two inferior teams, and that's why I'm examining the Bills' Super Bowl chances ahead of an epic battle between the AFC juggernauts. Our Gary Pearson analyzed the Chiefs' Super Bowl odds ahead of Sunday's matchup at 6:30 p.m. ET.
Bills Super Bowl odds
Best odds: +260 on DraftKings | Estimated probability: 27.78%
The best price on the Bills isn't much different than the longest odds on the Chiefs, which are also offered on DraftKings.
Several of the best sports betting sites are giving +260 on a Buffalo win in the Super Bowl, and +240 on a Kansas City win. The Philadelphia Eagles, on the other hand, are only +185 after they narrowly defeated the Los Angeles Rams at home in weather that favored the home team.
I think there's a bit of a pricing error here, and I want to take advantage of it.
Why the Bills will win the Super Bowl
I wouldn't touch the Eagles' Super Bowl chances with a 10-foot pole either, so my Super Bowl bet comes down to one of two things: do I believe the Washington Commanders can continue their cinderella ways for two more games, or do I believe the winner of the AFC title game will win the Super Bowl?
I'm sure you know my answer based on the title of this article.
Betting on the AFC ML championship game vs. betting on the Super Bowl
The Bills have just a 27.78% chance of making the Super Bowl, while their best odds for the AFC title game against the Chiefs (+115 at Caesars) give them a 46.51% chance of Buffalo making the Super Bowl.
So if you think the Bills will win this game, but I'm more worried about the Eagles (or Commodores), you still have the opportunity to get a nice plus bet.
However, I'll continue to ignore the worst quarterback left in the playoffs, Jalen Hurts (who did almost nothing in the divisional round).
And as much as I'd like to see Jaden Daniels and Co. go all the way, I'm not sure they're good enough.” C Jackson Cowart makes the case for the Chiefs' Super Bowl chances.
You can always double down on both the moneyline and odds on the Bills' Super Bowl odds, but I'd say that's a bit of a reckless betting strategy at this stage of the season. Unless you're already betting on the Bills to win, determine which bet you're most confident in and bet a full unit on it.
Why the Bills should win the Super Bowl
There's a reason why the favorites to win the NFL MVP are a pair of quarterbacks: it's the most important position on the field, and Josh Allen is consequently the best one left in the playoffs.
It's not that Lamar Jackson lost the Baltimore Ravens game last week, but he didn't do enough to win. In the end, Mark Andrews will take most of the blame, but Jackson committed two penalties himself. Meanwhile, Allen did exactly what was needed to win.
We almost saw the old, wild Allen when it looked like he wanted to give the ball to James Cook but got tackled, but he didn't. Because he doesn't make mistakes like that anymore.
For years, Allen has lacked maturity on the field. But when you combine his talent with his composure in center, he becomes an unstoppable force.
What the Bills Super Bowl odds should be
I also want to always make sure I'm getting some benefit from the odds I'm betting on.
As someone who believes the eventual champion is in the AFC, I believe both the Bills and Chiefs should be priced closer to +200, so I'm betting on that price, not on Buffalo just beating Kansas City.
At odds of even 30 points less (+230), the implied probability of Buffalo drops to 30%, and you lose 30 cents of potential profit for every dollar bet. This increases when your unit size increases.
All of our top Super Bowl betting sites have the Eagles as favorites, with the Bills and Chiefs trading in that range, and I just don't understand the logic behind this move.
Bills key players.
Josh Allen, QB: No, your eyes are not deceiving you. There is one name here, and one name only.
The idea behind this section was to highlight key Bills players. And yes, James Cook is a great and underrated runner. Khalil Shakir is a very reliable wide receiver, and the defense certainly has a few players who need to stay disciplined every time the Chiefs get the ball.
However, if the Bills win this game, it will be all down to one man.
We know Mahomes and Co. are going to throw everything at Buffalo. Kansas City is a different monster in the playoffs, so the Chiefs will almost certainly be more efficient on offense than they were in Week 11. Mahomes pulled down two rebounds in that loss, but Kansas City hasn't missed in eight straight games.
The Bills defense will do its part, but it's unlikely to be able to make a game-changing play like it did against the Ravens.
So, yes, it will all depend on Allen. Can he keep up and surpass the greatest playoff player of this generation on the road, in front of a very hostile crowd, with a much lower talent level of players surrounding him?
If Allen does what I think he's capable of, the Bills will come out victorious not only from this game, but from the Big Game.
How the Bills achieved success
Record: 13-4
Points per game: 30.9 (2)
Points Against: 21.6 (T-11)
Playoff wins: 31-7 (vs. Broncos), 27-25 (vs. Ravens)
More importantly, one of those 13 wins was a 30-21 victory over the Chiefs that handed them their first loss of the season.
True, that game was in Buffalo, and this time Kansas City will be looking for revenge on their home field.
