As the College Football Playoff National Championship approaches, we look at the tape to get a better idea of how to match up Ohio State and Notre Dame.

These two teams are last remaining for a reason, but how do they look ahead of Monday's game at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta? And does Ohio State deserve to be an 8-point favorite on our soccer betting sites?

Ohio State vs. Notre Dame comparison: Who's better?
Ohio State soccer preview: Lineup breakdown, key stats
Notre Dame soccer preview: Lineup breakdown, key stats
Ohio State vs Notre Dame odds, betting lines
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Ohio State vs. Notre Dame match statistics, key information

Ohio State vs. Notre Dame: the story of the CFP tape
Here's how Ohio State and Notre Dame compare in several key categories to help you pick the national soccer championship on Monday, Jan. 20.

Offense
As competent as quarterback Riley Leonard has been at Notre Dame this season, especially as a runner, the Fighting Irish offense isn't as good as the Buckeyes'.

That's the biggest difference: Ohio State ranks first in the EPA rankings per offensive return, while Notre Dame is only 20th. The Irish don't have a single pass-catcher capable of changing the game - Ohio State's third receiver (Carnell Tate) is likely Notre Dame's best receiver.

Both teams can run the ball - Ohio State is fourth in points per game, Notre Dame first - and both have injury problems on the defensive line. But the Buckeyes' QB and wide receiver play is markedly different.

Advantage: Ohio State

Defense
You could argue that this would be a moot point if Notre Dame was at full strength. Still, these are two of the best defenses in the country, and both rank in the top five in SP+.

Despite the loss of cornerback Benjamin Morrison earlier in the season, Notre Dame is still the top-ranked defense in terms of EPA per return. However, the loss of Riley Mills to the Irish ultimately gives the Bucs the edge.

Jim Knowles' team ranks in the top three in EPA per return and rush thanks to 11 starters who likely have a future in the NFL. I don't think Notre Dame is better on defense, at halfback or in the secondary.

Advantage: Ohio State

Special Teams
None of these teams are world leaders when it comes to special teams. The Bucs rank just 57th in SP+ among special teams, and Notre Dame is even worse at 84th.

But even despite the worse ranking, Notre Dame's special teams deserve more credit ahead of the national championship. Kicker Mitch Jeter looks like he's finally healthy, and he's made 7 of 8 field goals in the CFP, including 5 of 5 from 40+ in the Irish's last two games.

Ohio State kicker Jaden Fielding is 3-for-6 in his last four games, including missing two kicks against Michigan. The rebounding matchup is unmatched, and both teams are strong in returning the ball.

Advantage: Notre Dame

Third downs
Surprisingly, neither of these teams have been overly efficient on third downs this season. Ohio State ranks 57th in third-down conversion rate (41.6 percent), giving the Buckeyes a slight advantage over the 60th-ranked Irish (41.3 percent).

While the Buckeyes and Irish have had trouble with third downs, both clubs have excelled on fourth downs. Notre Dame is 19 for 26 (73.1%), while Ohio State is 20 for 28 (71.4%).

Both teams are almost equally likely to get into third-down situations - Ohio State is 72 for 173 and Notre Dame is 71 for 172. But Ohio State ranks 20th in success rate on 3rd/4th downs (45.6%) and Notre Dame ranks 41st (44%).

Advantage: Ohio State

Red Zone
Once again, it's surprising that neither team is dominating the red zone this season. Ohio State ranks a respectable 38th in red zone scoring, scoring 49 points on 56 attempts (87.5%), but most of them end in touchdowns (43).

Meanwhile, Notre Dame ranks 78th in red zone scoring with 48 points in 58 attempts (82.8%). The Bucs' advantage is not only in the frequency of points scored, but also in the frequency of touchdowns.

Ohio State turns a red zone outlet into a touchdown 76.8% of the time, while Notre Dame does it 72.4% of the time.

Advantage: Ohio State

Turnovers
It's very helpful to have a quarterback on a team that seems to make players give up as often as Ohio State loses to Michigan. All-American quarterback Xavier Watts is one of the reasons the Irish are one of the best teams in the country in interceptions.

Notre Dame ranks fifth in interception ratio (+17), and Watts accounts for seven of Notre Dame's 32 forced fumbles. Despite the erratic play, Leonard has only committed eight turnovers this season.

Ohio State isn't as strong: it has +4 interceptions, which is partly due to the limited number of interceptions on defense (10). But on offense, the Bucs have missed as many as Notre Dame (15 each).

Advantage: Notre Dame

Coaching
This is probably the hardest category to feel one way or the other about. Ryan Day's coaching problems have been greatly exaggerated and really only showed up against Michigan, which, right or wrong, is a game that matters more to Ohio State fans than any other.

Still, he's never lost more than two games in a season and should get credit for hiring UCLA coach Chip Kelly and bringing in Knowles, arguably the best defensive coordinator in the country.

But a slight edge is on Notre Dame's side, as Freeman showed in the Georgia matchup how well he can manage a game. He also deserves credit for hiring former Miami head coach Al Golden as his head coach and poaching Mike Denbrock from Brian Kelly and LSU to be his chief operating officer.

Advantage: Notre Dame

Summary
Notre Dame is the most storied program in college soccer history, and this year Freeman was able to break the record for most wins in a single season. Even with the lengthened schedule, that's impressive.

Although this is a very different team now than it was in September, the loss to Northern Illinois is the reason Ohio State gets the resume advantage. The Buckeyes' only losses were to Oregon, the top-ranked team in the CFP, by one point and to 8-5 Michigan State by one goal.

The Bucs were also more impressive in the CFP, beating Tennessee, Oregon and Texas by a score of 111-52. Notre Dame beat Indiana, Georgia and Penn State by a score of 77-51.

Advantage: Ohio State

NFL talent
Ohio State clearly has more talent for the NFL. If all eligible starters declare for the draft, the Bucs could break Georgia's record of selecting 15 players in one draft.

On offense, at least seven players will likely be selected, including left guard Josh Simmons and center Seth McLaughlin, who will miss the championship due to injuries. On defense, all but one player is eligible to be drafted, and that one is true sophomore Caleb Downs, who will likely be a top-15 pick next year. Realistically, there will be 12 to 14 Buckeye players taken in the 2025 NFL Draft.

Notre Dame isn't even close to that: only two or three offensive players are likely to be selected in April. The defense is in better shape with as many as seven players on draft radar, but that number includes the injured Morrison and Mills.

Both teams' top offensive prospects aren't even on the draft board: Ohio State's Jeremiah Smith looks like a top-five player in 2027, while Notre Dame's Jeremiah Love will be the top running back in 2026.

Advantage: Ohio State

Ohio State vs. Notre Dame: Who will win?
Here are the latest betting odds and information on the national championship matchups.

Follow the latest odds! Odds are updated in real time.

The odds for this matchup vary widely on our soccer betting sites. Ohio State started off as an incredible 9.5-point favorite, but that line has since changed to a more reasonable -8 at most betting sites, though the Irish are still available at +9.5 odds at others.

I still think this line will shift a bit more toward Notre Dame, as the bookmakers' consensus is that 65% of the public favors the Irish. Based on how these teams match up, I would bet Ohio State -6.5.

Winning by two points in a championship game is a very difficult task, especially when the opponent is a Notre Dame team that has won two of three CFP games by two points.

Ohio State vs Notre Dame game prediction: Who will win the national championship?
Almost everything points to a win for Ohio State, which is why they have been the odds-on favorite to win the National Football Championship for weeks now.

The Buckeyes have a more efficient and effective offense, a better defense, more NFL talent, and they have looked more impressive in the College Football Playoff. This roster is so talented and deep that they are already the odds-on favorite to open the CFP National Championship 2025-26.

However, I don't expect this to be a huge win like Ohio State defeated Tennessee and Oregon. By giving Freeman a week to put together a game plan against his alma mater, he can demonstrate how great a coach he is on the biggest stage.

I expect the Irish defense to take advantage of Ohio State's well-coordinated offensive line and rely on a diverse offensive game. That should help them in the contest, but in the end Notre Dame will lose to the Buckeyes by a score of 24-20.

Prediction: Ohio State