Thanks to a dominant defense, Notre Dame (13-1) has clinched a trip to the College Football Playoff semifinals, where it will host Penn State (13-2) in the Orange Bowl on Jan. 9 at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.
The Orange Bowl odds at our soccer betting sites give the Fighting Irish the edge over a Nittany Lions team that handled Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl to start the CFP quarterfinals and Notre Dame dealt with Georgia in the Sugar Bowl.
Our Notre Dame vs Penn State odds, early predictions and predictions suggest that these two Football Championship Subdivision contenders will rely on their defense in a low-scoring matchup. We also took a look at the other semifinal matchup: odds and early predictions for Ohio State vs. Texas.
Orange Bowl opening odds: Notre Dame vs. Penn State CFP betting lines
Notre Dame vs Penn State opening odds from FanDuel for the 2025 Orange Bowl.
| Market | Notre Dame | Penn State |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -1.5 (-110) | +1.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | -118 | -102 |
| Total (O/U) | Over 44.5 (-115) | Under 44.5 (-105) |
At the time of the College Football Playoff, neither of these teams were considered overly reliable opponents, but the advantage was on the Nittany Lions' side. However, after the Fighting Irish brushed aside Indiana and defeated Kirby Smart's Georgia team, Notre Dame is considered a slight favorite despite a lower ranking.
My early prediction for Notre Dame vs. Penn State: CFP Orange Bowl semifinal game
Soccer predictions made on Thursday; odds are subject to change. Our new soccer odds tool will help you find the best odds for any market among legal sports bettors in your area!
Prediction: Under 48.5
Best Odds: -110 via BetMGM | Estimated Odds: 52.38%
These two teams made it to the Final Four because of the way they play defense. Penn State stopped Heisman Trophy contender Ashton Janty in the quarterfinals, while the Fighting Irish held the Bulldogs to just 296 yards and 10 points.
Given the strong defense and erratic play of each team's offense, the under is the best bet to play in the early stages of the Orange Bowl. Notre Dame scores the fewest points per game in the country (13.8) and has the 4th lowest SP+ on defense after the first round of the CFP.
Outstanding play by Notre Dame quarterback Xavier Watts, who is transitioning from single-game to open-field play.
Despite being arguably the most talented passer in the CFP, Drew Allard came away with three interceptions between the Big Ten Championship and the first two rounds of the CFP, and his completion rate in all three meetings was 63.6 percent or worse, according to PFF. Meanwhile, Notre Dame is passing the fewest passes per game in the country (162.3).
Penn State, meanwhile, ranks in the top 10 in EPA per rush and per rebound defense and should be Notre Dame QB Riley Leonard's toughest test. Leonard's inconsistency as a passer has been masked by the Irish's running game, but Tom Allen's defense is allowing the eighth-most passing yards per game (100.9) in the country.
Star quarterback Abdul Carter, with his 58 pressures this season, is expected to be ready to play against the Irish, and Leonard could be under fire all game. Penn State's front seven held Gianti to 104 yards on 3.5 yards per pass, so it's built to contain Notre Dame.
Another reason to bet the total under is that BetMGM has put up a strange total of 48.5, while other top sports betting sites have it at 45.5. If the total is less, a $10 bet will make a profit of $9.09.
Odds for the Notre Dame vs Penn State matchup
Check out our soccer odds from the best betting sites for all college soccer games.
Moneyline
Best Notre Dame odds: -118 on FanDuel | Estimated probability: 54.13%
Best odds on Penn State: +100 via bet365 | Estimated probability: 50%
The difference between our best moneyline sports betting apps is small. These two teams are built very similarly and have looked strong in the CFP, so I wouldn't be shocked to see the line shrink slightly for Penn State and increase for the Irish.
Spread
Best odds on Notre Dame: -1.5 (-110) via DraftKings
Best odds on Penn State: +2 (-110) via Caesars
With Penn State having the easiest path to the semifinals of the four teams left in the CFP, it makes sense that it is an underdog to Notre Dame, especially given James Franklin's history in big games. That's why our top bookmakers are offering +1.5 to +2 on the Nittany Lions.
But part of me wonders if Notre Dame's win over Georgia is overrated. The Irish were originally underdogs, and despite Carson Beck being ruled out of the game, the line didn't get as much movement as it should have... I suspect the public will continue to bet on this line going forward towards the Irish.
Over/Under.
Best Odds: 45.5 (-110) via Caesars
Best odds for Under: 48.5 (-110) via BetMGM
The top live betting sites are seeing significant discrepancies in the odds for an Orange Bowl victory. While Caesars offers low odds of 45.5, BetMGM offers shockingly high odds of 48.5. Both DraftKings and FanDuel have it at 46.5, and I think it will hit that mark at most of our top betting shops next week.
Orange Bowl CFP semifinal game information
When: Thursday, Jan. 9
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
Where: Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Fla.)
How to watch: ESPN
Weather: 64 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 8 mph NW winds
Favorite: Notre Dame -1.5 (-110 on FanDuel)
