One team will book its spot in the 2025 NFL National Championship tonight when the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Penn State Nittany Lions meet in the Orange Bowl. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla.
Our prediction for the Notre Dame vs Penn State matchup is focused on the underdog, and our best bet is a total pick at the bookmaker. Our top soccer betting sites have the Fighting Irish going in as 1.5-point favorites.
Marcus Freeman's charges are favorites in the Notre Dame vs Penn State matchup according to our predictions and odds. Will the lower-ranked team's “Cinderella” journey end here, or will the Fighting Irish return to the title game for the first time since 2013?
Notre Dame vs Penn State football game prediction and top picks: CFP Orange Bowl
Soccer predictions are based on odds from our top soccer betting sites. Odds are subject to change.
Against the Spread: Penn State +2.5 (-110 via BetMGM) vs Notre Dame ⭐⭐⭐⭐
My top pick: Notre Dame vs. Penn State under 45.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Notre Dame vs Penn State ATS prediction for this game
Penn State will play the spread: +2.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Where are those who say James Franklin can't win big games now? Have they crawled back into their holes? Franklin had his Nittany Lions knocking on the door of a national championship after two dominating early-round wins in the inaugural 12-game College Football Playoff. Penn State defeated SMU and Boise State by a combined score of 69-24.
It goes without saying that the Nittany Lions were in control from the start of the first round.
This proves that the Nittany Lions' leader can win big games, he just hasn't been able to beat Michigan and Ohio State, which is understandable. Franklin's 101-41 record (711 winning percentage) is impressive as it is, but during his tenure in Happy Valley, he has posted a 97-24 (802) against teams not named the Wolverines or Buckeyes.
Offensive versatility
Another reason I prefer Penn State to cover this matchup is because of the way Drew Allard is playing. In his two games in the playoffs, he has limited interceptions and is effectively distributing the ball to his players.
That's not to say Riley Leonard hasn't been up to the task, but Leonard's play is more dependent on his two-point playmaking abilities. The Nittany Lions will surely try to limit Notre Dame's offense, forcing Leonard to use the air to get the ball down the field. Abdul Carter and Co. create havoc for even the best offensive lines, whether they are Joe Moore Award semifinalists or not.
In an ugly, low-scoring game - and I believe they will be - I'm picking a team that has Kaitron Allen, Nick Singleton, Tyler Warren and others. College Football Insiders gives Penn State a slight edge in this matchup. Therefore, I'll take a Nittany Lions win by a point at our top betting sites any day of the week and twice on Sunday.
Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Estimated odds: 52.38%
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Under 45.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
While I will gladly bet on Penn State as the underdog, my favorite pick in this matchup is the under bet, and it follows from our College Football Playoff semifinal predictions. The Fighting Irish and Nittany Lions boast two of the best defenses in the country, as evidenced by the fact that they have scored just 51 points in 16 quarters in the College Football Playoff.
Notre Dame and Penn State are scoring 13.6 and 15.8 points per game, matching the top five in the nation. They are allowing 13.5 and 12 points per game, respectively, this postseason, and against the best opponents they have faced throughout the campaign.
Tom Allen and Al Golden are forcing their charges to play their best soccer at the right time. They are the main reason why I believe this game will go down to the wire, despite the total being down three points on the week. The Fighting Irish and Nittany Lions have gone under 16-13 this season, so we'll bet on that trend continuing in a battle of two high-powered offenses.
BetMGM offers the best price on the under 45.5 odds at standard juice.
Best Odds: -110 via BetMGM | Estimated Probability: 52.38%
Odds change for the Notre Dame vs. Penn State matchup
The Over/Under odds for the Orange Bowl matchup have steadily declined throughout the week. The line at BetMGM opened at 50.5, but dropped to 44.5 a few hours before kickoff. 76% of bets at the bookmaker are on the under par total, according to John Ewing.
Betting on the total of Notre Dame - Penn State
50.5 points: 3.7% of bets
48.5 points: 5.8%
47.5 points: 1.5%
46.5 points: 32.9%
45.5 points: 32.4%
Total now 44.5
The odds for a Notre Dame win are -1.5 and even reached the -2.5 mark earlier this week. However, after word of a flu outbreak in the Fighting Irish locker room became public, the odds began to drop. Now, as tonight's matchup approaches, Notre Dame is a 1-point favorite.
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Live football odds for the Notre Dame vs. Penn State matchup
Notre Dame vs Penn State kickoff odds:
Notre Dame: -1.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
Penn State: +1.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
Follow the latest odds! Odds are updated in real time.
Orange Bowl game information
When: Thursday, Jan. 9
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
Where: Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Fla.)
How to watch: ESPN
Weather: 52 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 7 mph winds N
