Only four teams remain in the College Football Playoff semifinals, which begin tonight at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN): “Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-1) will face the Penn State Nittany Lions at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida.
Notre Dame is the favorite to win according to our top soccer betting sites, and we've compiled our top expert predictions for the Notre Dame vs Penn State matchup, including game predictions, player predictions and touchdown scoring predictions for tonight's CFP semifinal.
Expert predictions for the Notre Dame vs Penn State: CFP Orange Bowl matchup
Confidence predictions on a scale of 1 to 5 stars.
Against the Spread: Penn State +2.5 (-110 via BetMGM) vs Notre Dame ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Player's Choice: Jeremiyah Love Under 46.5 rushing yards (-125 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Touchdown Prediction: Riley Leonard to score a touchdown (-105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Don't miss Brenden Schaeffer's Notre Dame vs Penn State betting odds for a chance at +575!
Best predictions for the match Notre Dame - Penn State
Penn State will play with a spread of +2.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Estimated Odds: 52.38%
Where are those who say James Franklin can't win big games now? Have they gone back into their holes? After two wins in the early round of the inaugural 12-game College Football Playoff, Franklin's team is knocking on the door of a national championship. Penn State defeated SMU and Boise State by a combined score of 69-24.
It goes without saying that the Nittany Lions were in control from the start of the first round.
This proves that the Nittany Lions' leader can win big games, he just hasn't been able to beat Michigan and Ohio State, which is understandable. Franklin's 101-41 record (711 winning percentage) is impressive on its own, but during his tenure in Happy Valley, he's 97-24 (802) against any team not named the Wolverines or Buckeyes.
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Notre Dame vs Penn State matchup prediction by Gabe Henderson.
Jeremiah Love under 46.5 passing yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐.
Best Odds: -125 via bet365 | Estimated Probability: 55.56%
How healthy is Love after he reportedly finished the Georgia game with a bandage on his injured knee? If this was a regular season game, we could be talking about him getting a much-needed week of rest, especially since he wasn't 100% healthy after the Indiana game.
The fact that this line has dropped to 37.5 on FanDuel suggests that Love will give up a bunch of assists to Jadarian Price, who already has 110 assists compared to Love's 148 this season.
Even if Love were fully healthy, he would likely have a tough time against a Penn State defense that is allowing 101 rushing yards per game and 3.1 yards per rush while only giving up eight rushing touchdowns on the season.
The Nittany Lions have developed a fantastic game plan, holding Heisman Trophy winner Ashton Gianti to just 3.5 yards per pass. I expect them to build a game like that and force QB Riley Leonard to beat them with his arm.
Mike Spector offers betting odds on the Notre Dame vs Penn State game.
Riley Leonard will score a touchdown ⭐⭐⭐⭐.
Best odds: -105 via BetMGM | Estimated probability: 48.78%
At first glance, Leonard's passing numbers aren't impressive. Traditionally, you don't expect 2,383 yards, 18 touchdowns and six interceptions from the starting quarterback of a semifinalist. However, when you add in the running back stats, the picture becomes more complete.
Offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock has capitalized on Leonard's potential in the running game, much like he did with last year's Heisman Trophy winner Jaden Daniels at LSU. This season, Leonard racked up 831 yards and, more importantly, 15 touchdowns. He has found the end zone in 10 of 14 games on the ground for a 71.43 percent completion rate.
Despite Leonard scoring touchdowns at an elite rate, the best betting sites give only a 51.22% implied probability of Leonard ending up in the Orange Bowl.
Notre Dame's signal-caller has only gone a few consecutive games without a touchdown once this season, so we'll bet on him (-105) to avoid that fate in the game against Penn State.
Notre Dame vs Penn State game prediction from Gabe Henderson.
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CFP Orange Bowl Game Information
When: Friday, Jan. 9
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
Where: Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Fla.)
How to watch: ESPN
Weather: Indoors
Favorite: Notre Dame -1 (-110 via BetMGM)
