Fed Research Warns Stablecoins Double-Count Dollars in Money Supply
Federal Reserve staff research reveals stablecoins could cause the exact same dollar to be counted twice in official M1 and M2 liquidity metrics.
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Key takeaways
- Federal Reserve staff published research examining how stablecoins fit into M1 and M2 money supply metrics.
- The study shows current tracking methods could count the exact same US dollar twice.
- Reserve overlap and offshore circulation prevent clean measurement of total market liquidity.
Federal Reserve staff research points to a messy glitch in official money supply math: stablecoins are distorting the numbers, letting the exact same dollar get logged twice across metrics like M1 and M2.
The Math Behind the Double Count
Slapping stablecoins into standard monetary aggregates sounds simple on paper. Doing it in the real world? Total nightmare.
Fed researchers singled out two main hurdles messing up an accurate liquidity headcount: reserve overlap and offshore token circulation. When issuers stash fiat deposits or short-term debt at commercial banks to back their tokens, traditional balance sheets already record those underlying assets. Once issuers convert those reserves into circulating digital tokens, standard metrics risk tallying both the bank deposit and the stablecoin itself. Add in tokens moving overseas outside federal oversight, and clean accounting falls apart fast.
Why it matters
Central banks lean heavily on M1 and M2 figures to measure economic liquidity and steer monetary policy. If stablecoins throw off those numbers, expect regulators to demand much tighter reporting on reserve holdings and cross-border token flows to plug their accounting blind spots.
Source: CryptoSlate
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