Mizuho: AI agents could cut up to 20% of Circle's revenue
Mizuho warns that AI agents hunting for yield could pull USDC holders toward higher-paying fiat alternatives, putting 10-20% of Circle's reserve revenue at risk.
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Key takeaways
- Mizuho sees 10-20% medium-term downside risk to Circle's reserve revenue.
- The threat: AI agents steering USDC holders to higher-yielding fiat options.
- Circle earns its income largely from the reserves backing USDC.
- The warning was reported on Oct 27, 2026.
Mizuho thinks AI agents could take a real bite out of Circle's income. The bank flagged a 10-20% medium-term downside risk to the company's reserve revenue. The mechanism: software agents nudging USDC holders toward fiat alternatives that pay more.
What Mizuho is saying
The logic is simple. Circle earns its money on the reserves backing USDC. Say an automated agent finds a better rate elsewhere and holders move out of the stablecoin. The reserve pool shrinks, and so does the revenue it throws off.
Mizuho put the hit at 10-20% over the medium term. Keep in mind that's a risk estimate, not a forecast of what will happen. And there's a lot we don't have: no timeline, nothing on the model behind the range, and no response from Circle.
Why it matters
Stablecoin holders have mostly been passive. They park cash and forget it. AI agents don't work like that. They compare yields constantly and move money without a second thought. If that catches on, the loyalty of idle balances stops being something issuers can count on.
For USDC users, that could mean more pressure on issuers to share yield. For Circle investors, it's a reminder of how heavily the business leans on reserve income. The open question is whether Circle adapts before agents make switching effortless.
Source: The Block
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Priya Nair
Priya covers the AI side of crypto — agent tokens, decentralised compute and where the two industries actually meet.
