Stop me if you've heard this before: The Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles will face off in a Super Bowl matchup. In fact, don't stop me, I have more to say about my predictions for the Chiefs vs. Eagles and about my Super Bowl predictions.
The game will kick off at 6:30 PM ET (FOX) on Sunday, February 9 at the Caesars Superdome Arena in New Orleans. We haven't seen any notable changes in today's Super Bowl odds, with the market fairly stable after slight fluctuations earlier in the week.
Continuing with our Super Bowl predictions, let's see if Philadelphia can avenge their loss to Kansas City in the Big Game two years ago. Or will the Chiefs take the lead again and suffer their first three-game losing streak in the Super Bowl era?
Chiefs vs Eagles predictions for the Super Bowl: Jan. 30 game
Here are our NFL Super Bowl predictions with confidence based on a scale of 1 to 5 stars.
Who will win the Super Bowl: Eagles (+110 on DraftKings)
Against the Spread: Eagles +1.5 (-105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Top pick: Saquon Barkley 2+ touchdowns (+300 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Who will win the Super Bowl?
It's payback time.
Thanks to Saquon Barkley, the Eagles will take the lead in a tense matchup for Super Bowl 59.
Both teams boast impressive defenses and offenses that can score in a variety of ways. But Barkley is the best player in this year's Super Bowl. He's the X-factor, and that's why the underdog at our top Super Bowl betting sites will do his job and avenge a defeat from two years ago.
Chiefs vs. Eagles matchup prediction
Eagles to overcome the +1.5 spread
Best odds: -105 via BetMGM | Estimated probability: 51.22%
It's not just Barkley that will lead the Eagles to victory, as they have an advantage in several areas.
Philadelphia has a significant advantage on defense. The Eagles have the best defense in the league, according to PFF. The second most efficient defense in the NFL and the best secondary make the team formidable. They showcase an incredible run defense, ranking second.
Mainstay Patrick Mahomes, the favorite to be the Super Bowl MVP, will have a tough assignment. We've seen him accomplish the incredible before, but this year has been a bit of a down year for him. Mahomes scored the fewest points of his career (tied with 2019), failed to break the 4,000 passing yard mark for the first time, gained the fewest rushing yards in the last five years, and had the most sacks of his career.
In a season where we hear more and more about how the defense helps Kansas City stay in tight games, the Chiefs are facing a team with a noticeably better defense. That will be the difference.
Thursday's top pick for the Super Bowl
Saquon Barkley 2+ touchdowns
Best odds: +300 via BetMGM | Estimated probability: 25.00%
We've already mentioned that Barkley will be a big factor, so let's see if he can find the end zone two-plus times when it matters most. Barkley has scored multiple touchdowns in eight of his 19 appearances this season (42%). In addition, he has done so in five of his last 10 games.
Kansas City did an admirable job of containing Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen and keeping him out of the end zone last week, so perhaps the Eagles will try not to fall into the same trap with signal-caller Jalen Hurts. That could lead to Barkley getting extra chances on the goal line, and after all, he already has five touchdowns to his credit through three postseason games.
We see this line at bet365 at +230 (implied win probability of 30.30%), so let's take advantage of the extra value by betting at BetMGM.
A $10 win bet will yield a $30 profit if Saquon finds the ground at least twice.
Who is favored to win the Super Bowl?
Chiefs (-125 via bet365).
The Chiefs remain the favorite on the moneyline since this line was established.
The best price we see in our NFL odds is -125 at bet365 and Caesars. As of Thursday morning, all of our top sports betting apps are offering odds in the -125 to -130 range.
The -125 price gives a 55.56% implied win probability, yielding a profit of $8 on a $10 bet.
Super Bowl game information
- Date: Sunday, Feb. 9
- Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
- Favorite: Chiefs -1.5 (-110 via Caesars)
- TV: FOX, Fubo (streaming)
- Halftime show: Kendrick Lamar
- Anthem: Jon Batiste
