Bitcoin Eyes $85k as Oct. Rate Hike Odds Collapse to 22%
Plunging rate hike odds finally give traders some breathing room, but don't get reckless while Bitcoin aims for an $85,000 comeback.
Advertising disclosure: we may earn a commission when you join an operator via links on this page, at no cost to you. This never dictates our ratings. How we make money
Key takeaways
- Glassnode estimates the chance of an Oct. 28 rate hike dropped from 66% to 22%.
- Bitcoin's push toward $85,000 relies heavily on sustained ETF buying.
- Macro expectations shifted rapidly in early October following payroll data.
If Bitcoin wants to reclaim $85,000, big institutional money has to step up and defend the line through spot ETFs. We just got the latest U.S. payroll numbers, and thankfully, the heavy boot of central bank pressure is starting to ease off.
Macro Pressure Recedes
Look at the numbers from Glassnode. Traders radically changed their tune on interest rates right before the Oct. 28 meeting. Back on Sept. 28, the market was betting on a 66% chance of another quarter-point hike. Fast forward to Oct. 2 at 15:00 UTC? Those odds plummeted straight to 22%.
Fewer hikes equal cheaper capital, which usually gives risk assets a nice tailwind. But don't get sloppy—macro relief isn't going to pull off a real rally on its own. Bulls still need hard, undeniable proof that spot ETF volume is actually building up steam.
Why it matters
If you're holding spot or trading actively, macro tailwinds are finally blowing your way. Less fear of tighter money gives you some much-needed breathing room, sure. But let's follow the cash: spot ETF inflows are the only real engine powering this recovery. Keep your eyes locked on daily institutional buying before you even think about touching fresh leverage.
Source: CryptoSlate
Top Crypto Casinos Right Now
🇺🇸 Showing sites that accept players from United States Change country
Advertising disclosure: we may earn a commission when you join an operator via links on this page, at no cost to you. This never dictates our ratings. How we make money
More info Less info
Why we chose it: A US-facing book that pays a premium for crypto deposits: 125% against 100% for cash, with fee-free deposits across five coins.
- Payout time
- Within 24 hours (crypto)
- KYC
- Required
Restricted countries: Australia, Afghanistan, Bulgaria, Central African Republic, Congo - Brazzaville, Eritrea, France, Guinea-Bissau and 16 more.
More info Less info
Why we chose it: BetNow's casino floor with the biggest match bonus we list. The 200% headline deserves a careful read of the code terms behind it.
- Payout time
- Within 24 hours (crypto)
- KYC
- Required
Restricted countries: Australia, Afghanistan, Bulgaria, Central African Republic, Congo - Brazzaville, Eritrea, France, Guinea-Bissau and 16 more.
More info Less info
Why we chose it: A US-oriented casino that turns away only New Jersey. The cashier takes crypto, but the site publishes fewer specifics than any operator we list.
- KYC
- Required
Restricted countries: New Jersey (US).
Sofia Marek
Sofia reviews exchanges and crypto casinos, focused on fees, safety and what actually reaches the player.
